Stellar(XLM) price prediction: Can returning to the key support level of $0.44 trigger the next rebound?

XLM big pump后现获利了结，on-chain数据揭露long positions动向 According to AMBCrypto's monitoring, XLM staged a 110% epic rise in the past week, but the rapid increase has consumed long positions momentum: ⚠️ The single-day pullback is 10.6% to $0.43 (as of the publication of this article) ⚠️ Open interest suddenly decreased by 20 million USD ⚠️ Long positions are concentrating on taking profits at the $0.51 strong resistance zone. It is worth noting that the funding rate remains positive and the spot CVD continues to rise, indicating that selling pressure has not dominated the market, and the depth of the pullback may be limited.

Fibonacci key support zone becomes the focus of long and short positions

Draw Fibonacci retracement levels (white lines) starting from the rise on June 22: 🔷 The $0.42-0.44 range (23.6% retracement level) is being tested. 🔷 After breaking through the weekly bullish structure on July 6, the daily line left a "fair value gap". On-chain indicators confirm that the long positions are not destroyed: ✅ The A/D line continues to rise, indicating strong buying pressure. ✅ CMF indicator +0.23 is far above the +0.05 inflow threshold

The 4-hour chart triggers a short-term alert, with two major divergence signals resonating

Despite the daily trend being intact, the small time frame has issued a dangerous signal: 🔻 MFI indicator forms a bearish divergence with price (orange marked) 🔻 CMF has fallen from a high position to the neutral zone. This divergence accurately predicts the current pullback. The current XLM price has filled the $0.43 gap, and the technical washout may be nearing its end.

Bitcoin becomes the biggest variable, trading strategies closely monitor two key levels XLM's trend is still tied to Bitcoin's performance: ⚡ If BTC loses the $116,000 support (a 5.8% pullback from the $123,000 high), it may drag XLM into a deep correction. ⚡ Conversely, if BTC stabilizes at $117,000, XLM is expected to rely on $0.42 support to restart its rise. Traders should adopt: 🔸 Break through $0.44 to chase long positions (confirm the pullback has ended) 🔸 Volume drops below $0.42 stop loss (initiating deep correction)

Gate market shows that XLM has slightly rebounded, currently reported at 0.45943 USD, with a 24-hour rise of 5.69%.