Bitcoin falls below $116,000! Profit-taking, ETF outflows, and ETH draining pressure.

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently priced at $115,630, having fallen 2.6% in the last 24 hours, marking the largest single-day drop since breaking the historical high of $123,100 earlier this month, with the weekly decline expanding to 3.9%. This pullback has triggered a widespread drop in the crypto market, with alts and meme coins experiencing even steeper declines. Key reasons include: 1) Continuous rises leading to institutions and whales taking profits; 2) Bitcoin spot ETF facing a net outflow of $285 million over three days, ending a 12-day net inflow record; 3) Ethereum (ETH) bleeding effect becoming prominent, with funds rotating to ETH and some alts; 4) Uncertainty in U.S. tariff policies and a decline in risk appetite ahead of the Fed meeting. Analyst Rekt Capital points out that BTC is still in the early stages of "price discovery"; if it can maintain the critical support at $119,000 on a weekly basis, the bull flag pattern may break out and restart the rise.

Market Situation: BTC Leads the Decline, Crypto Market Faces Bloodbath

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at approximately $115,630, a significant fall of 2.6% in the past 24 hours. This is one of the largest 24-hour declines since it reached an all-time high (ATH) of about $123,100 earlier this month. This decline has increased its cumulative fall over the past 7 days to about 3.9%, continuing the downward trend that began earlier this week.

With BTC leading the fall, the broader crypto market is a sea of "blood red", with many altcoins and memecoins experiencing even heavier losses. So, what are the core driving factors behind this pullback?

Trigger One: The rally shows signs of fatigue, whales and institutions are taking profits

Bitcoin had been on a strong rise for several consecutive weeks, almost reaching new historical highs daily just over a week ago. However, this strong momentum has clearly cooled off.

• Profit-taking wave: Investors (especially early entrants) are locking in profits.
• Whale Portfolio Adjustment: Large holders ("whales", Whales) are undergoing Fund Rotation.
• Institutional Rebalancing: Institutional investors are rebalancing their portfolio positions. These behaviors together constitute the main source of selling pressure causing the current price decline.

Leverage Collapse: $587 million in liquidations in 24 hours, with BTC accounting for $150 million

The market shift has triggered a massive liquidation wave of high-leverage positions. According to CoinGlass data:

• In the past 24 hours, nearly $587 million in long positions (bull bets) were liquidated across the network.
• Bitcoin leads the liquidation: Its price fell towards $115,000, with a liquidation amount of approximately $150 million. When high leverage is forced to "de-leverage" in this way, losses can be rapidly amplified. Forced sell orders often further drag down prices, undermine market confidence, and turn normal technical pullbacks into more severe declines.

Trigger 2: ETF funds reverse, net outflow of 285 million in three days

Although the Bitcoin Spot ETF closed up on the latest trading day (Thursday), its overall performance this week has been weak.

• Inflow Momentum Interrupted: Within just three days, multiple issuers' ETFs recorded a total of $285 million in net outflows.
• Milestone End: This directly ends the previous record of 12 days of net inflow (this record was a key driver for BTC's rise earlier this month).
• Institutional Cashing Out: Institutional investors seem to be taking profits after BTC reached a recent high.
• Lack of Momentum: The absence of new incremental capital inflows has severely damaged BTC's short-term price rise momentum.

Incentive Three: ETH's strong siphoning puts pressure on BTC as funds rotate

Ethereum (ETH), which has surged over 50% this month, is becoming the new focus of the market, attracting a large amount of capital and attention.

• ETF Capital Siphoning: Record fund inflow tracking the Spot ETF of ETH, along with renewed interest from institutional investors.
• Erosion of Dominance: Bitcoin's market dominance is declining.
• Capital Rotation: Funds are clearly rotating to ETH and some strong-performing altcoins, further increasing the downward pressure on BTC.
• Retail Interest Shift: This shift is reflected not only in the flow of funds but also in market sentiment. Even after BTC climbed to $123,000, the discussion hotspots on platforms like X (formerly Twitter), Telegram, and Reddit have increasingly centered around altcoins, indicating that retail interest in BTC is marginally weakening.

Incentive Four: Macroeconomic Clouds Hang Overhead, Risk Appetite Cools

The uncertainty of U.S. trade policies has also cast a shadow over Bitcoin.

• Tariff Deadline: The critical deadline for tariff policy adjustment on August 1 is approaching.
• Negotiation Stalemate: Negotiations with major trading partners such as the EU, Brazil, and Canada have not yet made breakthrough progress.
• Defensive stance: Investors are thus turning to defensive strategies.
• Stock-Coin Linkage: The stock market has shown signs of caution, and this sentiment is spreading to the crypto market.
• Fed Meeting: With only a few days left until the Fed's interest rate meeting, traders are reducing risk exposure, with Bitcoin bearing the brunt of the pressure.

Market Outlook: Trend End or Bull Market Continuation?

Does the current downtrend mean the end of the upward trend?

• Analyst Opinion: Not Necessarily! Analysts believe that despite today's fall, BTC is still in a strong pattern overall, and the current price movement resembles a necessary adjustment before the resurgence of the upward trend.
• Rekt Capital Interpretation:
  1. Early Stage: The market leader (BTC) is currently still in the early stage of the "Price Discovery" upward trend, suggesting that there is still room for upward movement before a potential significant pullback occurs.
  2. Key support is effective: So far, BTC has successfully retested and held key support levels on the daily and weekly charts, including its recently broken "Lower High" level.

3. Bull Flag Breakout Condition: Rekt Capital emphasizes that as long as BTC can close above the $119,000 level on a weekly basis, the possibility of breaking out from the current Bull Flag pattern still exists.

Conclusion: Bitcoin has experienced the anticipated technical pullback after hitting historical highs, with $587 million in leverage liquidations revealing the risk of an overheated market. Institutional selling pressure (ETF outflows of $285 million over three days), fund rotation to the ETH sector, and macro policy uncertainties create a triple pressure. However, the depth of the pullback remains within a healthy range, with Rekt Capital pointing out that the $119,000 weekly support is critical for bulls. If this level is maintained, a breakout from the bull flag pattern may initiate a new round of rises; if lost, deeper adjustments should be monitored. Short-term volatility is intensifying, and investors should focus on key levels for trading opportunities, using the pullback to accumulate positions gradually while waiting for the Fed meeting and ETF fund flows to provide new directional signals.