Algorand ( ALGO ) price prediction: Technical indicators suggest a 40% potential rise, with record on-chain data in Q2 providing support.

Algorand (ALGO) is currently retesting the key neck support level ($0.26) after confirming a breakout of the bullish double bottom pattern, creating a technical resonance with the 20-day moving average ($0.2611). The Momentum Index RSI has healthily retraced from the overbought zone of 80 to 53, solidifying further upward momentum. If the support holds firm, the short-term target looks to be the previous high of $0.34, while the measured rise target of the double bottom pattern points to $0.37 (potential +40%). The fundamentals are strongly supported by the Q2 transparent report: the total network transaction volume has surpassed 3 billion transactions, with quarterly staking volume surging by 28.7%, and the RWA TVL growing by 12.7%, highlighting the progress in the tokenization of real assets sector.

1. Technical Analysis: Double bottom breakout retest confirmation, 40% rise is expected

(Source: TradingView)

• Key Pattern: ALGO price successfully formed a Double Bottom pattern, with two lows at $0.15 and $0.16, and the neckline resistance level at $0.26.
• Current Phase: After the breakout, it is currently in the Retest Phase, trading above $0.26. This position forms a technical resonance support area with the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA $0.2611), becoming a key defensive area for bulls.
• Momentum Health: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has significantly cooled from the overbought zone (near 80) at the high of $0.34 to the current level of 53, which is in the neutral range. This Momentum Reset has not entered the bearish zone, suggesting that the current consolidation is healthy and is building momentum for a continuation of the rise.
• Upside Target:
  • First Target: After breaking and stabilizing above the neckline, the primary target is the recent high of $0.34.
  • Target Measurement: Based on the height of the double bottom pattern, the core upward target points to $0.37, which has about 40% potential rise space compared to the current price.
• Risk Warning: If the price closes below the neckline on the daily chart at $0.26, the breakout will be invalidated, potentially triggering a deeper pullback, with support levels looking down to $0.23 or even $0.20.

2. Fundamentals: Q2 On-chain Data Shines, RWA Sector Gains Momentum

ALGO's recent performance is strongly supported by fundamentals. The transparency report for the second quarter of 2025 released by the Algorand Foundation yesterday shows:

1. Volume hits a new high:
   • In May, achieved the milestone of cumulative trading volume exceeding 3 billion transactions.
   • The quarterly trading volume achieved a quarter-on-quarter rise of 7.5%.
2. Staking Participation Soars:
   • Consensus Staking total amount surged 28.7%, reaching 1.95 billion ALGO.
   • Community-held staking volume rose 51%, strongly promoting the network's decentralization process.
3. RWA TVL significant rise:

   • The total locked value (TVL) of on-chain real-world assets (RWA) increased by 12.7% in Q2.

   • The growth momentum mainly comes from the advancement of asset tokenization projects, such as the short-term US Treasury ETF certificate token mTBILL launched by Midas.

     

     (Source: Algorand Foundation Transparency Report)

Conclusion: The price of ALGO is at a critical intersection of technical and fundamental factors. The pullback confirmation result at the neckline of the double bottom pattern around $0.26 will determine the short-term direction—if it successfully holds, it will open up a technical rise space targeting $0.37 (+40%); if it fails, one must be wary of the risk of correction. The impressive Q2 on-chain data, especially the increase in staking participation and expansion of the RWA ecosystem, provides solid fundamental support for the price. Investors need to closely monitor the battle for the neckline; if the breakthrough momentum resonates with on-chain growth, ALGO is expected to usher in a phase of strong performance. The implementation of innovative applications like Tokenized Treasury may serve as a catalyst for continuously attracting capital.