The global trade pattern is being reshaped, and Bitcoin's "digital gold" status is becoming prominent.

In March, the global market fell into uncertainty due to policy changes, eager to find new anchors. The US stock market accelerated its valuation reconstruction, and the cryptocurrency market also fluctuated with the situation. With the new tariff policy coming into effect on April 2, the global trade order faces deep restructuring, forcing countries to urgently adjust their economic policies. At such a moment, maintaining patience is particularly important. As the new order gradually takes shape, market sentiment will also warm up.

In March, the U.S. tariff policy underwent multiple adjustments. On April 2, the U.S. government officially announced the implementation of the "comprehensive reciprocal tariff" policy, imposing a basic tariff of at least 10% on all imported goods, and additional taxes on about 60 countries with significant trade deficits. This policy will trigger the most intense wave of global trade order reshaping since World War II.

After the news was released, the market experienced violent fluctuations. US stocks and the dollar fell sharply, with the dollar index breaking below 104; Nasdaq futures plummeted over 4%, and S&P 500 futures dropped 3.5%. The stock prices of the seven major US tech giants saw particularly significant declines, with Apple falling 7.5% after hours. Funds flowed into safe-haven assets, with spot gold prices soaring to $3160 per ounce, setting a new historical high.

The tax rate and scope of this tariff policy far exceed market expectations. Investors are concerned that the tariff war will ultimately impact the foundation of U.S. economic growth. First, there is the risk of supply chain disruption; targeted tariffs on automobiles, steel, aluminum, and technology products are forcing companies to accelerate supply chain restructuring, leading to a sharp increase in industry chain costs. Secondly, there are concerns about an inflationary spiral; analysis shows that after adding countermeasures, the U.S. CPI could be pushed up by 2 to 2.8 percentage points.

Economists have raised the probability of a recession in the United States. In March, some economic data indicators showed a decline. Although the non-farm payroll data at the end of March indicated that the unemployment rate in the U.S. was 4.1%, the final value of the consumer confidence index for March fell from 64.7 in February to 57, below expectations. At the same time, the core PCE price index still reached 2.8% year-on-year, confirming the dilemma of "slowing economic growth and stubborn inflation."

The Federal Reserve expressed concerns about economic uncertainty during the March monetary policy meeting. On one hand, economic growth shows signs of slowing; on the other hand, inflation remains stubbornly high. This puts the Federal Reserve in a dilemma regarding policy decisions.

After the announcement of the new tariff policy, the market has increased bets that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in June, with a cumulative decrease of 0.75 percentage points before October. It is reported that the probability of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve's June meeting has risen to about 70%.

The impact of tariff policies goes far beyond the domestic economy of the United States and the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. Are other countries willing to cooperate in negotiations? How much can the United States concede in negotiations? Currently, major economies around the world are formulating counter-lists, and the global economy and financial markets still need to bear pressure under this uncertainty.

U.S. stocks continued to decline in March, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropping 8.7% and 12.3% respectively in the first quarter of 2025, marking the largest quarterly decline since 2022. Since November 2024, the S&P 500 index has fallen from 6200 points to 5572 points, a decline of over 10%, with a market value evaporation of 4 trillion dollars.

In the past two years, the U.S. stock market has attracted global capital due to the "TINA" effect, accounting for over 50% of the global stock market capitalization. However, as the economic cycle evolves, this high valuation that diverges from the fundamentals has become increasingly difficult to maintain. Institutions are adjusting their optimistic expectations for the U.S. stock market: several investment banks have lowered their year-end targets for the S&P 500, citing "tariff risks and slowing profit growth."

At the same time, the confusion of U.S. policy signals further exacerbates market panic. This contradictory statement leaves investors at a loss, and market confidence is severely impacted. The "big 7" tech stocks were the first to encounter a wave of sell-offs, with a cumulative market value evaporating by over $2.5 trillion, which is both a correction of the previous valuation bubble and a reaction to policy uncertainty.

Under the dynamic interaction of interest rate cut expectations, tariff pressures, and recession risks, certain institutions have clearly pointed out that the risk-reward ratio of unilateral bets on U.S. stocks has significantly worsened. Investors need to rely more on diversified strategies instead of blindly betting on a unilateral rise in U.S. stocks.

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Bitcoin has also been hit by the dual impact of market volatility and policy uncertainty, but its performance remains relatively resilient. In March, Bitcoin showed a "V-shaped" fluctuation, initially declining before rising, with a monthly drop narrowing to 2.09%, significantly better than the Nasdaq index's drop of 8.2% during the same period. During this market turmoil, Bitcoin has exhibited an independent market trend.

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Especially in mid to late March, with U.S. regulators easing restrictions on crypto assets, institutional accumulation, and the Federal Reserve signaling "three rate cuts this year", Bitcoin experienced a strong rebound. Overall, the adjustment of Bitcoin in March was more of a technical correction rather than a trend decline.

Although the current cryptocurrency market is still affected by new tariff policies, the recognition and regulatory process of the U.S. government in the field of crypto assets has become increasingly clear. A series of measures are paving the way for the long-term development of the industry: the U.S. government has for the first time managed Bitcoin as a permanent national asset, marking its status as "digital gold"; the SEC is gradually easing its hardline stance on cryptocurrencies, shifting from "enforcement-based" to "cooperation and rule-making"; regulatory agencies have abolished the policy restricting banks from custodizing crypto assets, and a large amount of institutional funds is expected to enter through banking channels.

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Institutional investors' enthusiasm for crypto assets, particularly Bitcoin, continues to rise. The CEO of a leading global asset management company warned in the annual letter to investors that if the United States cannot effectively manage the growing debt and fiscal deficit, the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency may be replaced by emerging digital assets like Bitcoin. This highlights the importance of Bitcoin in the current financial context and implies its potential key role in the evolution of the global economic landscape.

With the new tariff policy taking effect, the economic outlook for the United States is becoming increasingly uncertain. If the U.S. economy does not fall into a deep recession and the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in June, Bitcoin is expected to see a trend reversal in the second quarter. During times of economic instability, the scarcity and safe-haven properties of Bitcoin will become more pronounced. Once market risk appetite recovers, Bitcoin, as an emerging asset class, is likely to be the first to break through key resistance levels and welcome a reassessment of its value.

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In March, the market oscillated between "stagflation worries" and "policy easing". In the long run, if tariffs are implemented, driving up inflation and eroding the dollar's credibility, it will force funds to shift towards non-sovereign assets. The most disruptive variable in reshaping the new global financial order has emerged, and whether Bitcoin can shake the dollar's hegemony is worth paying attention to.

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