The Landscape and Outlook of the Crypto Market in the Post-Bull Run Era

Global crypto market landscape

In the first half of 2025, the crypto market entered the "post-bull run" phase, exhibiting characteristics of high-level fluctuations and structural differentiation. Although Bitcoin reached a new high, it was followed by a pullback, and macro uncertainty still exists. The market is in a transitional zone after the peak of the cycle, with a decrease in risk appetite and reduced capital activity, but there has not been a severe liquidity crisis. Core assets still have institutional demand, while some emerging sectors such as AI chains and Restaking continue to attract capital.

The global economy is showing a state of "unstable de-inflation and growth pressure." The Federal Reserve maintains a cautious stance, and there are differences in market expectations for interest rate cuts. US-China trade frictions have become a new variable, increasing market volatility. However, the encryption industry has enhanced its ability to withstand interference, with multiple countries introducing supportive policies to provide a compliant participation path for traditional funds.

"Post-bull run" is not an end, but the beginning of a new phase. The market places more emphasis on value assessment, practical scenarios, and long-termism. In the short term, it is still influenced by macro factors, while in the medium to long term, it is in a critical period transitioning to the next resonance cycle of technology and application.

Impact of Trade War and Macroeconomics

In the first half of 2025, Sino-U.S. trade frictions reignite, involving multiple sensitive areas. However, this round of disputes carries more symbolic significance, and the actual impact is relatively mild. The U.S. tariff increase is constrained by inflationary pressures, while China maintains a rational and restrained attitude.

Although trade frictions have triggered short-term risk aversion, they have not led to a reassessment of systemic risk. The market has quickly stabilized, and the crypto market's resilience has significantly increased. The main impacts on the crypto market are reflected in: a short-term contraction in risk appetite, deformation of cross-border capital flows, and a strengthening trend of de-dollarization.

As global inflation eases, expectations for interest rate cuts rise, and trade negotiations become more rational, the crypto market's sensitivity to geopolitical frictions has decreased. Institutional investors view trade risks as "background fluctuations." The macro environment is transitioning from the "end of tightening" to a "moderate recovery," and the driving forces of the crypto market may return to technological innovation and ecological evolution.

Potential Drivers of Market Rebound

1. Changes in interest rate cycles and a rebound in risk appetite: Major central banks are slowing down interest rate hikes, and expectations for rate cuts are rising. The low interest rate environment drives funds towards high-risk, high-return assets, and institutions may increase their allocation to encryption assets.

2. Continuous innovation and expansion of DeFi: With technological maturity and the expansion of application scenarios, DeFi has made improvements in scalability, cost-effectiveness, and security. The fields of lending and derivatives are attracting more institutional participation.

3. Institutional investors continue to enter the market: From ETFs to institutional fund increases, institutional inflows bring more capital and risk management mechanisms. Large enterprises are gradually recognizing the strategic significance of crypto assets.

4. Breakthroughs in blockchain technology applications: Progress has been made in various fields such as finance and supply chains. Cross-border payments, smart contracts, and DAO applications are continuously breaking industry barriers, driving the scaling and maturation of the crypto market.

Main Chain and Asset Diversification Trends

1. Bitcoin and Ethereum: Bitcoin is once again defined as "digital gold" and an anti-inflation asset. Ethereum has become synonymous with "digital financial platform", with its value logic shifting towards "on-chain economic operating infrastructure".

2. Solana and high-performance chains: Entering a new stage of ecological deep construction after experiencing the Meme craze. Substantial ecological projects are widening the gap with purely Meme coins.

3. Layer2 and cross-chain technology: significantly improve transaction efficiency and reduce costs. The synergy of multi-chain coexistence + cross-chain liquidity protocols enhances the development space for cross-chain assets, unified wallets, and aggregated liquidity protocols.

Outlook and Strategy Recommendations

Key Factors:

• Policy clarification: Regulatory frameworks are becoming clearer, especially concerning innovative fields such as stablecoins, DeFi, and NFTs.
• Market sentiment improves: shifts from pessimistic to positive, increasing investor recognition.
• Large capital drive: Increased participation of institutional investors and development of the derivatives market
• DeFi maturity: improvements in security, liquidity, and user experience attract more participants

Strategy Suggestions:

1. Stick to long-term investment in mainstream assets: Bitcoin and Ethereum are still the market's main forces.
2. Focus on innovative chains and emerging assets: consider high-potential public chains and assets.
3. Strengthen the allocation of stablecoins and DeFi assets: seize new growth points.
4. Stay closely informed about policy dynamics and regulatory risks: adjust strategies promptly to avoid risks.

The crypto market has significant rebound potential in the second half of 2025, but multiple factors are interwoven affecting it. Investors should flexibly adjust their strategies and continuously pay attention to market changes and potential opportunities.