Crypto Market Update: Ethereum Holds the $3,000 Level, Bitcoin's $115,000 Support is Under Pressure

Market Overview

The $3.1 billion renovation cost of the Federal Reserve headquarters has sparked controversy, with Trump personally pressuring and calling for interest rate cuts. While the idea of firing Powell has been temporarily shelved, White House officials and Republican lawmakers continue to attack Powell's credibility on this basis, attempting to influence interest rate policy. Analysts believe this is an unconventional public relations tactic aimed at pushing for rate cuts and possibly diverting public attention from other controversies. However, the current financial environment in the U.S. is actually quite loose, which contradicts Trump's demand for significant rate cuts.

Economic indicators show that the financial conditions in the United States are in an extremely loose state: the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index has hit a three-year low, major stock indices continue to reach historical highs, the scale of money market funds has reached $7.1 trillion, and household deposits remain at a high of $4.46 trillion. This excess liquidity puts the Federal Reserve in a dilemma: inflation is still above target and the job market is strong, but the government is requesting significant interest rate cuts citing pressure from Treasury bond issuance, and analysts are concerned that cutting rates at this time could exacerbate the risk of a stock market bubble.

In the field of stablecoins, an analyst has presented a vision for their future applications, believing that large-scale adoption will mainly focus on three directions: B2B settlement, crypto assets and the DeFi ecosystem, as well as sovereign financial expansion. He pointed out that stablecoins combined with smart contracts can significantly enhance the efficiency of cross-border enterprise settlements and supply chain finance. Within the crypto ecosystem, stablecoins have become a core liquidity infrastructure. Moreover, he particularly emphasized the potential of policy-driven stablecoins that are pegged to national currencies, arguing that such stablecoins can not only improve the efficiency of cross-border trade but also align with the monetary sovereignty strategies of various countries, potentially becoming an important tool in the future evolution of geopolitical finance.

For Bitcoin, multiple analysts have pointed out the risk of a short-term pullback. Some analysts are focusing on the key range around $113,000. Other analysts have noted a bearish divergence between the price and the RSI indicator, along with a gap in the $114,380-$115,635 range, suggesting the price may adjust downward. Additionally, there are analysts who believe that Bitcoin is facing strong selling pressure at the $120,000 resistance level, with a cumulative net outflow of $285.2 million from the spot ETF in the past three days, but bulls have successfully defended the $115,000 support level. If it breaks through $123,218, it may advance towards $135,729 or even $150,000; conversely, if it falls below $110,530, bears may take control. From a medium to long-term perspective, some analysts have given a buying range of $89,380 and a target price of $200,000.

In comparison, Ethereum shows relative strength. A certain model indicates that Ethereum has solid support in the $2000-$3000 range, with key resistance above at $4500. Some analysts are watching whether Ethereum will reach the critical liquidity price of $3,476 and rebound quickly. In the long term, some analysts have set a buying range of $2,200 for Ethereum and a target price of $10,000. However, there are also warnings that Ethereum may be unstable in the short term, with a risk of a pullback, as its increase has been too rapid, and technically it is in an "overbought" state. More notably, the cost of borrowing Ethereum has surged on certain platforms, which may force some leveraged traders to liquidate their positions, triggering a price decline.

Market funds are flowing from Bitcoin to Ethereum and other altcoins, but a comprehensive "altcoin season" has not yet been confirmed. Some analysts believe that Solana will quickly rebound after falling to $173. In the NFT space, a listed company acquired a rare CryptoPunk for $5.15 million and plans to incorporate it into its revenue strategy. Industry insiders state that NFTs are the ultimate game of status on the internet, predicting that CryptoPunks will perform better in USD during this cycle compared to Ethereum. Additionally, a well-known entrepreneur announced the launch of an AI version of Vine, causing the similarly named token VINE to briefly surge over 100%, with the current increase narrowing to 50%.

Key Data (as of July 25, 12:00 HKT)

• Bitcoin: $115,774 (Year-to-date +23.39%), Daily Spot Trading Volume $70.943 billion
• Ethereum: $3,638.16 (Year-to-date +8.78%), daily spot trading volume is $54.538 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 71 (Greed)
• Average GAS: BTC: 0.84 sat/vB, ETH: 0.26 Gwei
• Market share: BTC 60.8%, ETH 11.6%
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 48.19%/51.81%
• Sector performance: The crypto sector has generally pulled back, with the NFT sector down 7%; the AI sector down 4.3%.
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 201,010 people globally have been liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of 702 million USD, including 154 million USD in BTC liquidations, 160 million USD in ETH liquidations, and 52.77 million USD in SOL liquidations.
• BTC medium to long-term trend channel: upper channel line (118465.84 USD), lower channel line (116119.99 USD)
• ETH medium to long-term trend channel: upper channel line (3494.47 USD), lower channel line (3425.27 USD)

ETF Flow (As of July 24)

• Bitcoin ETF: +227 million USD, after three days of outflows, it turned into a net inflow.
• Ethereum ETF: +231 million USD, continuous net inflow for 15 days

Today's Preview

• A certain trading platform will delist the perpetual contracts for BADGER, BAL, and NIL on July 25.
• A trading platform will launch DePHY Network (PHY) on July 26.
• Venom (VENOM) will unlock approximately 59.26 million tokens at 4 PM on July 25, which is 2.84% of the current circulating supply, valued at about 13.4 million USD.
• AltLayer (ALT) will unlock approximately 240 million tokens at 6 PM on July 25, which is 6.39% of the current circulation, valued at approximately 8.9 million USD.
• Sahara AI (SAHARA) will unlock approximately 84.27 million tokens on July 26 at 8 PM, which is 4.13% of the current circulating supply, valued at about 6.9 million USD.

Today's top 100 market cap biggest declines: Pump.fun down 22.4%, dogwifhat down 9.3%, Pudgy Penguins down 8.3%, Fartcoin down 8%, Virtuals Protocol down 6.9%.

Hot News

• Suspected Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen sent approximately $140 million of XRP to exchanges within 7 days.
• The REX-Osprey Solana staking ETF will integrate JitoSOL and allocate 100% of the rewards to shareholders.
• A stablecoin issuer has newly minted 2 billion stablecoins on the Ethereum chain.
• The TON Foundation and Kingsway Capital plan to raise $400 million for the TONCoin treasury.
• Strategy plans to increase the fundraising scale for purchasing Bitcoin to 2 billion USD.
• GameSquare acquired CryptoPunk #5577 for $5.15 million and increased its holdings by 12,913 Ether.
• BitMine's Ethereum holdings exceed $2 billion, totaling 566,776 ETH.
• Anchorage Digital collaborates with Ethena Labs to launch the first GENIUS compliant, federally regulated stablecoin USDtb.
• deBridge Foundation launched a reserve fund to buy back DBR tokens using all protocol revenue.
• Ruihe Digital Technology Holdings announced an HKD 80 million cryptocurrency investment plan
• GoPlus launched a security fund of 500 million GPS tokens
• The new Solana treasury company Accelerate plans to raise $1.5 billion, with Joe McCann set to serve as CEO.
• The next round of compensation for a certain bankrupt exchange will be executed on September 30, releasing $1.9 billion in disputed debt reserves.
• BitMine launches BMNR options trading on the NYSE, planning to acquire 5% of the Ethereum supply.