Recently, new trends have emerged in the financial markets, stemming from signals released by The Federal Reserve (FED) indicating a possible interest rate cut in September. The US dollar index fell sharply in response, and the market has begun to position itself for easing policies. Current analysis shows that the probability of a rate cut in September exceeds 60%, with even a 20% chance in July.

Interest rate cuts mean that the yield on bank deposits decreases, and funds will flow from low-risk areas to high-yield assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies. This is favorable for high-risk assets.

Although some investors maintain a pessimistic attitude, citing reasons such as poor technical trends, geopolitical uncertainty, and the fact that The Federal Reserve (FED) is still tightening policies. However, these viewpoints are not entirely valid. The cryptocurrency market is easily manipulated by large capital, and technical patterns may be artificially shaped; geopolitical influences have gradually been digested by the market; more importantly, multiple countries around the world have begun to lower interest rates, and funds have been gradually entering the market driven by expectations.

The market capitalization of stablecoins increased by 2 billion USD in 5 days, indicating that funds are quietly flowing in. The seemingly calm market is actually building momentum.

The key is that if large funds intend to wash the market, the time window is narrowing. With the expectation of interest rate cuts in September strengthening, retail investors may enter the market in large numbers, which will significantly increase the cost of washing the market. Therefore, July or August may be the best time.

If there is an unexpected interest rate cut in July, it may catch the market off guard. The market may first break through and then pull back, attracting retail investors before harvesting.

In summary, the current market is not truly bearish; instead, it may be a consolidation phase before a rise. If there is indeed a rate cut in July, it could signal the start of a market rally. Whether it is large funds washing out positions or retail investors bottom-fishing, the time window is gradually narrowing. Investors need to closely monitor changes in monetary policy, make prudent decisions, and seize potential investment opportunities.