Cardano (ADA) faces a crucial moment: Breakthrough or continued hesitation?

Cardano (ADA) is approaching a crucial breakout moment, according to analysis from expert Dan Gambardello. Currently, this coin has just hit the resistance level at the (MA) 200-day moving average, while also nearing critical Fibonacci levels.

The confirmation signal for the bullish trend will only be truly clear if ADA surpasses the $0.79 mark. Meanwhile, the price is still hovering at the bottom of the bullish market cycle, indicating that more momentum is needed for ADA to be able to explode more strongly in the near future.

Cardano price tests the 200-day moving average

Cardano is approaching a decisive moment as it challenges the 200-day moving average – a critical technical threshold on the daily chart. After testing the first resistance zone, ADA briefly surpassed this moving average, but selling pressure quickly pushed the price back down, leaving a long candle wick that reflects a clear rejection from the bears.

Currently, ADA is fluctuating right near this important threshold. Yesterday's session recorded accumulation within a narrow range, and today, this coin continues to test the 200-day moving average. However, to confirm a real breakout, ADA needs to maintain several solid closing sessions above this level.

Daily ADA/USDT chart | Source: Dan Gambardello/XHistory shows that previous attempts to break resistance often only create short-term peaks, before the price quickly weakens. The current price action continues to exhibit familiar characteristics: high volatility, attracting attention, but continuously reversing, making the trend lack sustainability.

If ADA cannot break free from the region around the 200-day moving average, the risk of being rejected once again is very high. At the same time, the important Fibonacci resistance area at the level of $0.79 is still waiting to be tested - serving as the next barrier on the bullish journey.

Only when both thresholds – the 200-day moving average and the $0.79 mark – are decisively broken, can the new upward trend be clearly established.

On the daily chart, ADA is forming "swing high" and "swing low" patterns, indicating that the market is consolidating before a strong movement. With continuously testing the lower highs, ADA needs more confirmation sessions to break through the current stalemate and open the door for a more sustainable uptrend.

The weekly chart of ADA shows a breakout opportunity

On the weekly timeframe, Cardano (ADA) is signaling a breakout above key moving averages after a prolonged accumulation phase. Throughout this time, ADA has continuously collided with the resistance zone formed by three key moving averages: the 20-week, 50-week, and especially the 200-week – creating a challenging "multi-layered resistance."

Despite several attempts, ADA has not yet been able to close a candle above this resistance cluster. The weekly chart clearly reflects the trend of forming lower highs, while the price continues to persistently test the resistance zone. If ADA can break above the $0.79–$0.80 range, this will be a sign that the coin has escaped the pressure of the long-term moving averages.

Weekly ADA/USDT Chart | Source: Dan Gambardello/XCurrently, ADA is still trading in a lower peak zone – a strong resistance level on the weekly timeframe. However, if it breaks through this zone, the trend structure will shift to a more positive state. Maintaining the price above the $0.79–$0.80 threshold will not only establish a new price floor but also open up the prospect of a trend reversal to bullish.

It is important to note that the moving averages are currently converging, creating a very strong resistance cluster. If ADA can break through this "wall", it will be a stepping stone to establish a more solid growth trend in the medium term.

"Bull Market Door" aims for the range $1.20–$1.25

According to analysts, the price of ADA is currently anchored at the lowest point of the "bull market gate" — a key area that determines the long-term growth trend. To establish a clear bullish signal, Cardano needs to rise to a higher price range, specifically the mark of $1.20–$1.25.

The "bull market door" is a term used to describe important support and resistance areas where trends can change. Currently, ADA is testing the lower threshold of this technical zone. If it successfully breaks through and maintains above it, the coin will officially step into the "bullish territory" clearly and convincingly.

The price range of $1.20–$1.25 is considered the point where "the real game begins" for investors holding ADA. When the price enters this area, trading systems and risk management models will start to record a higher level of risk, which means greater profit potential but also the possibility of strong volatility.

In clear bull market phases, the risk index often climbs to high levels such as 70, 80, or even 90. At that point, automated warning systems will be activated, providing early signals to investors who are closely following market developments.

Currently, Cardano is still in the "pre-bull market" phase. A strong breakout through the resistance zone will open the door to higher targets, marking an important turning point.

Not only ADA, many other altcoins are also forming similar technical patterns. However, Cardano is leading this group, and it only lacks a strong confirmation signal from price action to become the flag bearer in the new bullish cycle.

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