Elon Musk's AI Enters the Prediction Market: Revolutionizing Kalshi's Trading with Grok

Kalshi is the first CFTC-regulated prediction market that allows users to trade directly on the outcome of real-world events. Its integration with Grok AI is sparking a trading revolution. This article is from an article by Thejaswini M A, curated, compiled and contributed by Luffy, Foresight News. (Synopsis: A Brief History of the Prediction Market: From the Pope Election to the Polymarket) (Background added: Arthur Hayes' latest forecast: Bitcoin 250,000, Ethereum 10,000, see you at the end of the year) You've been following Fed meetings for months and know they're about to adjust interest rates. Economic data predicts it loudly, inflation data backs it up, and even subtle changes in Bauer's (Powell) rhetoric hint at the arrival of this moment. But how do you translate that judgment into a deal? Of course, you can buy bonds and expect prices to rise when interest rates fall; Or short the dollar, pray that the correlation remains the same; Or buy rate-sensitive tech stocks aggressively and hope the market interprets the news as you expect. But if ...... Can you trade Fed decisions directly? What if, instead of playing these indirect "derivative games", you can directly ask "Will the Fed cut interest rates at its next meeting?" Make a bet and make $1 per contract if you guess correctly? Let's talk about sports betting. You can buy shares in New Balance in the hope that Gauff (Coco Gauff)'s win in the Australian Open will drive sportswear sales; You can short Nike-sponsored athletes because they are eliminated early; Or you can invest in DraftKings and bet that rising tennis ratings will drive more gambling. But if ...... Can you bet directly on whether Gauff will win the Australian Open? Invest $100 and get $200 back if you guess correctly, without having to read the financial reports of any business. You can buy shares in TKO Group in the hope that the WrestleMania competition will attract a record audience; You can short shares of rival entertainment companies; Or bet on a surge in merchandise sales. But if ...... You can trade directly Can Roman Reigns keep his title? Bet your money directly on the outcome of the story, skipping all the media companies' analysis. That's exactly what Kalshi allows you to do. Kalshi is the first prediction market regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and you can trade directly on the outcome of real-world events – not stocks affected by the event, not currencies that may fluctuate due to news, but the event itself. Make your predictions valuable Fed decisions, election results, Supreme Court rulings, whether Bitcoin can rise to $150,000, whether inflation will exceed 4%, whether the team you support can win the championship...... As long as you can form an opinion and the results are objectively measured, there may be a corresponding market on Kalshi. Polymarket pioneered the concept of the modern prediction market and handled billions of dollars in trading volume in the US election, proving the huge demand in the market. Kalshi raised $185 million at a $2 billion valuation, with liquidity from large trading firms such as Susquehanna and Robinhood integrating the Kalshi marketplace directly into its platform, allowing millions of retail traders to participate. Elon Musk's (Elon Musk) Grok AI is even embedded in its trading interface. This is a regulated, institutional-grade "transactional reality" infrastructure. Building on Polymarket's global reach, Kalshi brought prediction markets into the regulated U.S. financial system. Think about what this means: For the first time, you can directly monetize the advantage of predicting real-world events without the friction of traditional financial markets – no complex derivatives, no counterparty risk, and no worries about whether your hedge will actually work at the time of the event. If you think the next NFP report will be unexpected, there are corresponding markets; If you believe that Trump (Trump) will win the 2028 election, you can trade the contract now; If you're convinced that AI companies will dominate the next decade, you can bet on specific milestones and regulatory outcomes that will determine their fate. This platform turns every non-public information, every analytical advantage, and every educated forecast into a potential profit opportunity. Unlike traditional markets that take advantage of arbitrage information through complex strategies, prediction markets directly reward knowledge. How Kalshi Works Understanding Kalshi's mechanics is crucial because event contracts work differently than any financial instrument you've traded. Let me walk you through it step by step with a real example. Step 1: Account Setup and Deposit In kalshi.com create an account and complete the necessary identity verification (KYC). Since Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC, you will need to provide standard documents such as ID card, proof of address, etc. When it comes to depositing, Kalshi offers a variety of options with varying amounts and speeds: bank transfers are free but take 1-2 business days; Debit cards are instantly credited with a 2% processing fee and a daily limit of $2,500; Cryptocurrency users can deposit USDC with a daily limit of $500,000 and arrive within 30 minutes; Wire transfers are suitable for large amounts of money, but there are minimum requirements. Step 2: Understand Market Pricing Enter any market and see the current pricing structure. Take the market of "can Bitcoin rise to $150,000 by 2026" as an example: the current "yes" contract is quoted at 44 cents, and the "no" contract is 59 cents, which means that the market believes that there is a 44% chance that bitcoin will rise to $150,000 by 2026. The interface will clearly show your potential profit: if you buy a "yes" contract at 44 cents, and bitcoin really rises to $150,000, you can get $1 per contract and make a profit of 56 cents per contract; If it does not rise to that level, the contract will expire. The trading process is as follows: Let's say you think Bitcoin can rise to $150,000 and want to buy 100 "yes" contracts at 44 cents each, spending a total of $44. If Bitcoin reaches its target by 2026, it will pay $1 per contract, and you get a total of $100 and a profit of $56; If the target is not met, the contract is voided and you lose $44. Step 3: Place an order Choose to buy a "yes" or "no" contract, enter the amount (minimum $1), and the platform will automatically calculate how many contracts you can buy and the maximum profit. Take Bitcoin as an example: buy a 44-cent "yes" contract for $1 and you can buy about 2.27 contracts. If you guess correctly, you can get $2.27 and make a profit of $1.27. The calculation process is transparent until the transaction is confirmed. The beauty of this model is its simplicity: your biggest loss is the purchase cost, and the maximum profit is $1 per share minus the purchase price. There are no margin calls, no complicated Greek letters, and no overnight financing costs. Step 4...