The Mysterious Trader's Election Prediction Bet Yields Huge Returns

A mysterious trader has made a series of bold bets on the 2024 U.S. presidential election, expecting to earn nearly $50 million in profit. This trader, referred to as the "Trump Whale," not only bet that Trump would win the presidential election but also that he would win the popular vote, a result that many political observers believe is unlikely to happen.

The trader who calls himself "Théo" has also bet that Trump will win swing states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. He placed bets using four anonymous accounts on a cryptocurrency prediction platform. Although he refuses to disclose his identity, he has been in contact with a mainstream media outlet since mid-October.

Théo stated that his bet is essentially a wager on the accuracy of polling data. He identifies himself as a wealthy Frenchman who has worked as a trader at several banks, using his mathematical knowledge to analyze U.S. polls since this summer. He believes that the polls have exaggerated the support for Vice President Kamala Harris and has bet over $30 million on Trump winning.

On the night of the election, Théo was very pleased with the results. He woke up in the middle of the night in France to check the election results, and Trump's strong performance in Florida gave him confidence in his bet. Before the election, Théo predicted that Trump would receive 49% or 50% of the votes nationwide, defeating Harris and winning six out of seven battleground states.

As of Wednesday afternoon following the election, analysts predict that Trump will win the popular vote, receiving nearly 72 million votes, while Harris will receive 67.1 million votes, even though there are still millions of ballots yet to be counted in some states. The betting markets believe that Trump's victory in the popular vote is almost a certainty, and he is expected to win all seven swing states.

Théo stated that he is betting on Trump with his own money, aiming to make a big profit, and that "there is absolutely no political purpose". In conversations with reporters, Théo repeatedly criticized American opinion polls, particularly those conducted by mainstream media, arguing that these polls are biased towards the Democrats and often produce anomalous results favorable to Harris.

Théo shared a data table based on the average of public opinion polls, showing that Trump performed well in the swing state polls in 2020. Considering that the public opinion poll results in swing states for 2024 are very close, Théo inferred that if Trump can perform similarly well, he will easily take the lead.

Théo believes that the polls fail to explain the "shy Trump voter effect." He suggested that polling organizations should use the "neighbor opinion poll" method, which asks respondents who they expect their neighbors will support. Théo cited several polls that used this method, showing that Harris's support rate is several percentage points lower than that of traditional methods.

On election night, Théo revealed that he had commissioned a large polling agency to conduct a survey to measure the neighbor effect, but refused to disclose specific details. He believes that if American polling agencies adopt the neighbor method in future surveys, they may avoid embarrassing mistakes again.