Bitcoin $123,000 battle between bulls and bears! Long-term holders' largest cash-out this year VS miner whales firmly hoarding coins.

Bitcoin has entered a consolidation phase after reaching a historic high of $123,000, with on-chain data releasing conflicting signals: long-term holders (LTH) have realized their largest profits of the year (SOPR reaches 2.5), while institutions sold $131.4 million in a single day, ending a 12-day net buying streak; however, whale trading activity (exchange ratio 0.42) and miners' coin hoarding tendency (MPI -0.2) still release bullish momentum. In the bull vs bear battle, SOPR has not touched the historical top threshold of 4.0, and total institutional holdings remain at $111.47 billion, indicating that the adjustment may be a buildup for a breakout, with attention on the supply squeeze potential caused by miners' continued coin hoarding.

▍Long-term holders cashing out: Historical top signal not triggered On-chain data captures significant profit-taking actions from LTH.

• SOPR Soars: The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has surpassed 2.5, reaching a new high for 2024, indicating that LTHs are realizing an average profit of over 150%.

• But not reaching the danger threshold: Historical data shows that SOPR needs to break 4.0 to indicate a local top (such as the peak of the 2021 bull market), and the current value suggests that LTH has not fully exited.

  

• CDD Verification: The Binary CDD indicator value is 1, confirming that LTH is continuously selling, which may pressure the price in the short term.

▍Whales and Miners: Building a Bullish Defense Line The core force against LTH selling pressure is emerging:

• Whale Trading Active: The Whale Exchange Ratio has reached 0.42, indicating that large holdings addresses are actively conducting on-chain transfers, which is usually a signal for subsequent market positioning.

  

• Miner Coin Hoarding: The Miner Holdings Index (MPI) has risen to -0.2 (in the negative range), and the trend is upward, indicating that miners' sell reluctance is increasing. Prolonged negative values will reduce market circulation, laying the groundwork for a Supply Squeeze.

▍Institutional Trends: Short-term Profit Taking vs Long-term High Positions Institutional behavior shows tactical adjustments:

• Daily Selling Record: Net sell of $131.4 million Bitcoin within 24 hours, ending a consecutive 12-day net buying streak.

• Position Remains High: CoinGlass data shows that the total net holdings of institutions still reach 111.47 billion USD, with the selling volume accounting for only about 0.12%, which falls within the normal profit-taking range.

  

• Key Observation Points: If institutional funds quickly return to net buying, it will confirm the continuation of the bullish trend and push Bitcoin out of the consolidation range.

▍Assessment of Consolidation Nature: Higher Probability of Uptrend Continuation Comprehensive multi-dimensional signals indicate that the current adjustment is more inclined towards healthy accumulation:

1. Technical Analysis: Consolidation after a historical high is normal, with the $5,000 range below $123,000 providing support.
2. On-chain logic: LTH part cashes out but does not panic sell, miners/whales act as stabilizers.
3. Capital situation: Institutional large positions remain unchanged, and short-term outflows are unlikely to change long-term allocation demand.
4. Supply Dynamics: Miners continue to hoard coins while the new supply decreases after the halving, resulting in increasing supply pressure in the medium to long term.

Conclusion: The tug-of-war around Bitcoin's $123,000 mark is essentially a fierce battle between long-term holders cashing out in phases and whale miners positioning themselves bullishly. Although short-term profit-taking by institutions has caused some disturbances, their hundred-billion-dollar positions remain intact. Coupled with the SOPR not reaching historical danger thresholds, this round of consolidation is more likely to become the final chip exchange before a breakout. Investors should pay close attention to two major on-chain signals: whether the miner MPI can maintain negative values (continuity of Coin Hoarding) and when institutional funds will return to net inflows. If miners continue to lock up and reduce circulation, along with the return of institutional buying, Bitcoin may quickly end consolidation and enter a new accelerated market phase, targeting the $130,000 to $150,000 range. The current period of volatility provides a strategic window for positioning.