The Fear of Economic Recession in the United States Casts a Shadow Over the Cryptocurrency Market, Analysts Warn

According to market analyst and Coin Bureau founder Nic Puckrin, the United States has a 40% chance of falling into recession by 2025, a scenario that could deal a heavy blow to the crypto market. In an interview, Puckrin explained that although a comprehensive recession is not yet the most likely outcome, the probability has increased significantly due to growing macroeconomic instability. He pointed out the trade policies of U.S. President Donald Trump, including tariffs on trade partners and budget cuts, as potential factors leading to a recession. "Trump and his advisors do not entirely dismiss the possibility of a recession, which makes it a credible risk," Puckrin noted. However, he clarified that although Trump is not actively promoting a recession, the administration's economic strategies could inadvertently lead to one. The increasing macroeconomic instability has begun to shake the market, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) sliding as investors seek safer opportunities in the European capital markets. According to Puckrin, this flight from the US dollar is contributing to the recent weakening of risk assets, including the crypto market. Customs Duties and Macroeconomic Instability The recent trade tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have shaken the crypto market, causing prices to drop widely. Bitcoin (BTC), which surged to over $109,000 in January 2025, has experienced a strong 24% correction following the announcement of the tariffs. Altcoins are even worse when the overall market sentiment shifts from the state of excitement after Trump is re-elected in November 2025 to extreme fear due to rising concerns about trade wars. According to research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard from Nansen, the crypto market is likely to continue facing pressure from tariffs until at least April 2025. Sondergaard believes that only a breakthrough in diplomacy or a softer stance from the Trump administration could reverse the downward trend. Cryptocurrency Shows Signs of Recovery Amid Changing Policy Despite the bleak outlook, some analysts still see a glimmer of hope. The founder of 10x Research, Markus Thielen, recently suggested that Bitcoin could hit a price bottom in March 2025, pointing to a slightly softer tone in Trump's trade rhetoric. Thielen believes that this policy change could signal a potential reversal in BTC price, bringing a glimmer of optimism for crypto market investors. While the market remains fragile, any signs of easing in the trade war or changes in monetary policy could reignite risk appetite.