Bitcoin and Gold Correlation Strengthened Again: What Do Historical Data Say? - Coin Bulletin

The price relationship between Bitcoin (BTC) and gold has strengthened again after the dramatic divergence in February and is moving in accordance with historical cycles.

Bitcoin price fell from 102 thousand dollars to 84 thousand dollars in February, while the gold ounce price rose from 2 thousand 800 dollars to 2 thousand 850 dollars during the same period. Due to this opposing movement, the 30-day Pearson correlation between the two assets sharply declined from 0.73 to -0.67 in a short period.

However, by April, the situation changed again. The Bitcoin-gold correlation recovered to a level of 0.54. Behind this strong recovery are the macroeconomic uncertainties created by the tariffs implemented by U.S. President Donald Trump. In the environment that formed in the market following Trump's announcement of "Liberation Day," Bitcoin gained over 10% in value, while gold prices experienced an increase of more than 5% during the same period. Additionally, the U.S. Dollar Index fell by about 4% during the same period, paving the way for investors to turn to Bitcoin and gold.

The historical cycle continues

Since 2020, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has fallen below -0.50 a total of 18 times. In 17 of these instances, the correlation recovered within just one week and generally rose above the 0.80 level. The only exception occurred in December 2022, where the recovery lasted about two weeks. This historical data clearly shows that the relationship between Bitcoin and gold prices is shaped by periodic divergences and convergences.