Bitcoin surpasses $106K: Will the Fed or the Iran-Israel tensions determine the next trend?

Bitcoin started the week by reclaiming the $106,000 mark, forcing late short positions to liquidate after a 7% fall last week that wiped out excessive leverage.

But this is not a new pattern. Since mid-May, the daily chart of BTC has shown a repeating structure, where strong liquidity sweeps caused significant price falls, attracting value hunters and then facing FUD news (fear, uncertainty, doubt) from macroeconomic factors that wiped out weekly profits and reset the trend.

Will this time be different? Can Bitcoin finally escape this volatility trap and establish a clear directional trend, or is it preparing for a repeating cycle? How Bitcoin addresses this setup could determine the next move.

Bitcoin makes a fourth attempt to gain clarity on its direction

At the time of writing, Bitcoin has recorded a 1.7% increase for the day, not only reclaiming $106,000 but also extending the wick up to $107,263.

More importantly, Binance's order book is showing that nearly 60% of traders in the BTC/USDT perpetual contract are leaning towards short positions, creating a clear liquidity zone above.

The bulls have set up, but until they push the price beyond, BTC remains trapped in this high leverage volatility zone. If a squeeze begins, $110,000 is the level to watch, marking the fourth attempt to break through and explore new prices.

However, until now, each breakout has only lasted for a short time, with concerns about macroeconomic factors pulling everything back just before the structure could be confirmed.

BTC price chart | Source: TradingViewHowever, the likelihood of another strong volatility event is even higher.

With just two days left before the important FOMC meeting in the U.S., the market is focusing on the possibility that the Federal Reserve will pause interest rate hikes, especially as May's economic data shows softer signals than expected. However, an unexpected factor is casting a shadow over this optimistic picture: new geopolitical developments are making an already complex scenario even more unpredictable.

The conflict between the two major oil-producing countries has reignited concerns about inflation, increasing pressure on risk assets.

Bitcoin is also not outside the influence as the price has fallen 7% last week, retreating to the level of 102,000 dollars.

Technically, the current price increase of BTC to $106,000 is occurring within the same structural pattern that has appeared before three recent failed breakout attempts.

Therefore, this weakens the bulls' ability to break the cycle and pushes Bitcoin into a price discovery phase, aiming for a new all-time high.

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