There was no feared outcome in the Middle East tension: Markets did not crash.

The involvement of the USA in the conflict between Iran and Israel has further escalated tensions in the Middle East. US President Donald Trump stated that the attack carried out by B-2 bombers destroyed 3 important nuclear facilities in Iran. Many countries, including Iran and Russia, condemned the USA's participation in the war, while the markets are quietly monitoring the developments.

The feared "yet" has not happened

Investors were curious about how the markets would start the week. It was expected that such a direct intervention by the US would increase geopolitical risks and lead to unease in global markets, but the feared scenario did not materialize. Market reactions remained quite limited. However, Iran's threat to close the Strait of Hormuz is still seen as the biggest risk on the table. Although the Iranian Parliament has decided to close the strait, the final decision will be made by the country's Security Council and religious leader Khamenei. In the event of the strait's closure, which carries more than 20% of the world's oil, it is expected that the price of oil per barrel will exceed 100 dollars.

Bitcoin has returned, gold has not risen

The MSCI World Index, which tracks thousands of large and medium-sized companies in 23 developed countries, started the week with only a 0.12% decline due to recent events. Gold also fell by 0.23%, bringing the price per ounce down to 3360 dollars. The dollar index rose by 0.35%, reaching the level of 99. After hitting a low of 99,100 dollars, Bitcoin rose above 100,000 dollars again on Monday morning.

Emphasis on Hormuz by Experts…

Experts are emphasizing the Strait of Hormuz. Dan Ives, an executive at the U.S.-based investment banking and financial services firm Wedbush, stated, "Markets believe that the nuclear threat has been eliminated. Therefore, there is a sense of relief. I do not think the tension will spread to the region."

The asset management company Bleakley's manager Peter Boockvar also spoke a bit more cautiously:

"Everything depends on how Iran will respond... If they indicate that their nuclear targets are over, the conflict will come to an end. The markets will then start to rise. I don’t think Iran will take an action that would harm global oil prices."

Alternative investment firm Clocktower analyst Marko Papic stated that he expects oil prices to exceed 100 dollars in the event of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz:

"Then panic increases, stocks drop at least 10%, and investors flee to safe havens. However, Tehran's retaliation tools are limited... For this reason, the markets are calm... Tehran also knows that if it closes the strait, the U.S. will respond even more harshly."

As of the morning hours, Bitcoin is trading above 101,500 dollars.

Published: June 23, 2025 09:39 Last Updated: June 23, 2025 09:45