The Rebound of the Dao: Over 10 billion USD flows in to drive the strong rebound of BTC

In April, BTC welcomed a strong Rebound, rising 14.11% in a single month, recovering all previous losses. The global financial market was impacted by the "reciprocal tariff war", causing panic sentiment to soar and asset prices to significantly decline. However, after the release of sentiment, along with a softening attitude from relevant parties and relatively resilient U.S. economic data, funds rushed into the U.S. stock market and cryptocurrency market.

BTC adjusted ahead of the US stock market, and after the US stocks hit the bottom, it surged strongly driven by a large amount of capital. After the adjustment, the BTC chip structure has greatly improved, and the internal status is more stable.

The S&P 500 and the cryptocurrency market have fully recovered from the decline since the "tariff war" began. In light of the unresolved tariff issues and the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economic outlook, the market performance is quite strong, continuously pricing in the latest information. However, for the market to achieve a real reversal, the tariff issues need to be resolved, and further confirmation from U.S. economic data is required. There will likely be many twists and turns along the way.

Macroeconomic Finance: Tariff Expectations Trigger Severe Market Correction

April continued the judgment framework of March, with Trump's softened stance on tariffs playing a major role. Coupled with relatively strong economic and employment data, traders diminished their concerns about "economic recession," ultimately leading to forward-looking trades betting that tariffs would not cause an economic downturn dominating market trends. Both the Nasdaq and BTC recorded positive monthly returns.

After the tariff policy was introduced in early April, US stocks plummeted, with the three major indices falling below the annual line. The bond market and European stocks became the preferred safe havens. The VIX index soared, US Treasury yields rose significantly, and the US dollar index dropped to a new low. The Nasdaq entered a technical bear market.

Under pressure from various sectors, the Trump team has softened its stance. It has suspended the imposition of tariffs on most countries and is considering reducing the high tariffs on certain goods. These measures have alleviated the panic in the market.

U.S. stocks have rebounded strongly after hitting bottom, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 recovering the losses caused by tariffs. For the month, the Nasdaq rose 0.85%, the S&P 500 fell 0.76%, the Dow Jones fell 3.17%, and BTC surged 14.11%.

During this period, the Federal Reserve maintained a tough stance, only releasing a few dovish signals when the market experienced significant fluctuations. CPI data cooled down, GDP growth slowed, but employment data remained strong. These factors collectively supported the market Rebound.

Currently, the valuation of US stocks has undergone some adjustments, but they are still not cheap. The market pricing is relatively sufficient, and continued increases require more supportive conditions. We tend to have a neutral judgment and need to closely monitor the progress of tariffs and changes in economic data.

Crypto Assets: Solid Chip Structure + Long-term Support

The BTC trend in April can be described as a model of "reverse trading", buying in a state of panic and waiting for the sentiment to ease before the asset price rebounds rapidly.

BTC opened at 82534 USD, fell to a low of 74420 USD, and closed at 94182 USD, with an increase of 14.11% for the month and a volatility of 26.12%. The trend was characterized by an initial decline followed by a rise, with a significant rebound by the end of the month.

Technically, BTC has repeatedly tested the annual line to confirm the long-term trend and has broken through the 200-day line, returning to the "Trump bottom" range. Compared to U.S. stocks, BTC's performance is stronger, thanks to prior adjustments, increased holdings by long-term investors, and supportive policies and applications.

Multiple states are advancing the "Bitcoin Reserve Bill", with Arizona likely to become the first state to allow state treasuries to hold Bitcoin. The expansion of BTC use cases and rising prices are reinforcing each other. Although short-term influences are affected by external factors, the internal structure remains intact, and once the panic subsides, the upward trend will resume.

Chip Structure: Long-term investors increase holdings, short-term floating loss pressure alleviates

Long-term holders and large holders continued to increase their positions during the downturn, especially the "shark" group holding 100-1000 BTC, which accumulated over 80,000 BTC throughout the month. The BTC inventory on exchanges decreased by approximately 60,000 BTC.

After two months of fluctuations, the focus of chips in the range of 74,000 to 100,000 USD has shifted downward, filling the previous shortage of chips. Currently, short-term holders have exited from losses, and the percentage of BTC in a state of loss across the entire chain has dropped to 14%. The market sell-off triggered by panic and losses has greatly improved.

Capital: Over ten billion dollars in fundraising

In April, the total capital inflow exceeded 10 billion US dollars, including ETF channels, on-site funds, and institutional fundraising for increased positions. At the beginning of the month, there was a slight outflow of funds, but a large amount of capital started to flow in from mid-month, driving the BTC price to rise rapidly.

Despite the severe market fluctuations from February to April, based on a comprehensive analysis of capital and chip trends, we believe the market is still in an upward cycle. This adjustment helps to strengthen the chip structure, and once external shocks subside, the price of BTC is expected to break through again.

Conclusion

After adjustments, the internal structure of the cryptocurrency market has become more solid, providing strong support for an upward trend. However, external uncertainties remain significant, especially the economic recession risks that may arise from tariff issues, which need to be watched closely. We maintain confidence in the long-term trend of BTC, but caution is still needed in the short term to address potential fluctuations.