Exclusive Interview with Shen Yu: The Impact of Bitcoin Halving on Mining Companies and Future Trends in the Crypto Market

During the Hong Kong Web3 Carnival, we interviewed Shen Yu, the co-founder of Cobo and F2Pool, for an in-depth discussion on hot topics such as Bitcoin Halving, the mining landscape, and the development of the Bitcoin ecosystem.

Bitcoin Halving's Impact on Mining Companies

Shenyu believes that the Bitcoin mining industry mainly has three types of enterprises:

1. North American listed mining companies: relying on cheap energy, recently strengthening cash flow through financing, and beginning to expand into new businesses such as Layer 2 solutions.

2. Chinese-backed non-listed mining companies: distributed in South America and Africa, pursuing low-cost operations, recently expanding rapidly in Africa.

3. Emerging national investment institutions support mining companies: the goal is not only profit, but also to obtain early Bitcoin production.

Overall, the Halving has a significant impact on the second type of mining enterprises, as they are more sensitive to cost changes. Currently, many mining enterprises are undergoing large-scale relocation of mining machines to optimize costs.

Altcoin Market Expectations

The divine fish stated that after this Halving, it is highly unlikely that a "shanzhai season" will occur.

1. The current market participants are different from before, many miners have hedged their risks in advance.

2. Funds mainly flow into Bitcoin through channels such as ETFs, and have not yet flowed on a large scale to other cryptocurrencies.

3. The market is in the mid-stage of a bull market, having found a new narrative logic, but has not yet reached a high leverage and FOMO state.

He advised investors to continuously monitor market developments and timely rebalance their assets.

The Impact of AI Chip Demand on Mining

Shen Yu believes that AI companies and mining machine manufacturers may not be in competition over chip demand:

1. Bitcoin mining has driven the rapid iteration of chip technology, shortening the development cycle.

2. Some mining chip manufacturers have started developing AI-oriented chips, which have similarities in computing and power consumption control.

3. Future mining and AI chip companies may gradually merge, and product boundaries will become blurred.

He reminded that there is a time lag of 6 to 12 months between the price fluctuations in the crypto market and changes in computing power.

The Necessity of Expanding the Bitcoin Ecosystem

Regarding the development of the Bitcoin ecosystem, Shen Fish holds a positive attitude:

1. The Bitcoin main chain, as a value storage, is difficult to make significant updates, but many innovative attempts have emerged based on it.

2. The economic incentives recently emerged from technologies like the Lightning Network have attracted a large number of real users.

3. The development of the Bitcoin ecosystem reflects the charm of decentralized networks, where even core developers cannot stop innovation.

He believes that the Bitcoin ecosystem is in its early stages and needs time and patience to develop.

Competition and Development of Custody Services

Facing the entry of traditional financial institutions into the encryption field, the God Fish believes this is a good thing:

1. Helps to address new users' concerns about the secure storage of cryptocurrencies.

2. In the future, there may be blockchain applications that users are unaware of, such as keyless wallets based on MPC.

3. Cobo focuses on the secure storage and use of private keys, as well as related risk control, to provide solutions for different stages of the market.

He expects that with the improvement of performance issues and user experience, the crypto industry will usher in a truly grounded development stage.

Investment Insights and Market Observations

The divine fish shared its investment insights:

1. It is recommended to invest 10-15% in promising sectors when the assets reach a certain scale.

2. Currently paying special attention to the development of "modular blockchain", believing that this could be the next hundred billion dollar market.

3. By reading and reflecting, reduce the FOMO mentality and view the market from a more macro perspective.

He also noticed that the new generation of investors (, such as those born after 2000 ), are more sensitive to market changes and more adaptable to the digital environment.

Views on AI and the Metaverse

The divine fish believes that we are currently at the intersection of multiple rapidly developing technologies:

1. Looking forward to the integrated application of technologies such as blockchain, AI, and the Internet of Things.

2. In the future, AI Agents may have their own intelligent wallets and keys, capable of conducting transactions autonomously.

3. The actual implementation of the metaverse may differ significantly from past imaginations, with the core being the storage and presentation of data and ownership in virtual spaces through blockchain technology.

4. In the future, there may be mature applications first, and then their assets will be put on the chain, rather than issuing assets first and then looking for application scenarios.

He concluded that the development of the crypto industry may go through a bubble period, a period of mass frenzy, and only then will it truly mature, which is a typical cycle of technological development.