The price of Bitcoin has reached a historical high. Is it too late to buy in now?

After the price of Bitcoin broke through $116,000, setting a new historical high, the question "Is it too late to buy now?" has become the most perplexing issue for all investors. The answer to this question depends on how you view the essential attributes of Bitcoin.

1. Insights from Historical Cycles

Looking back at the 13-year price history of Bitcoin, there are always two kinds of voices after each time it "hits a new all-time high":

1. "Top Has Been Reached" faction: In 2013 at $1200, 2017 at $20,000, and 2021 at $69,000, the market has seen assertions of "absolute peak".
2. "Just Starting" faction: At the same time, there are people who insist that "it is still early".

Interestingly, both viewpoints have ultimately been validated—there may have been a peak in the short term (an 83% drop after 2013), but in the long term, they have both turned into a base (continuing to rise after breaking 20,000 in 2020). This reflexivity is precisely the characteristic of Bitcoin as an emerging asset.

2. Current Structural Changes in the Market

The bull market in 2025 is fundamentally different from the past:

• Institutional Leadership: Traditional institutions such as BlackRock and Fidelity hold over 25% share.
• Clear Regulation: The US SEC approves spot ETFs, and the Bank of Japan includes BTC as reserve assets.
• On-chain data: The proportion of long-term holding addresses (＞155 days) reaches 76%, setting a new historical high.

These changes have made Bitcoin increasingly resemble "digital gold," with volatility dropping from 10% in 2017 to the current 3.5%.

Three, Key Evaluation Dimensions

Determine the entry timing using three dimensions:

1. Time Cost:
   • If you plan to hold for more than 3 years, the current price may still be within a reasonable range.
   • If you only want to arbitrage in the short term, the risk at the $116,000 position is extremely high.
2. Nature of Funds:

• Idle funds can consider dollar-cost averaging (e.g., allocating 1-5% of assets monthly)
• Entering with leverage or borrowing at historical highs is extremely dangerous.

1. Personal Cognition:

• Holders who believe Bitcoin is "digital gold" can often traverse cycles.
• Investors who simply chase hot trends are most likely to become "the bag holders."

4. Practical Suggestions

For investors in different situations:

Newbie：

• First, try with 1000 dollars to feel the market fluctuations.
• Learn to use cold wallets to avoid exchange risks

Veteran:

• Check your "sell discipline" (e.g., reduce holdings by 20% if it falls below the 200-day moving average)
• Consider using options to hedge risks

Institutional Investor:

• Wait for callbacks to the $90,000 - $100,000 range to build positions in batches
• It is recommended to control the configuration ratio within 1-3% of the total assets.

V. Ultimate Thoughts

Bitcoin is undergoing a transformation from "risk asset" to "store of value." Similar to gold after the collapse of the gold standard in 1971, its price fluctuated and rose by 400% in the first 10 years, then entered a phase of stable appreciation. Currently, Bitcoin may be at a similar turning point.

The final answer depends on: do you believe this digital orange will grow into a towering tree in the next decade, or do you think it is just another financial illusion?