Crypto Assets Market Weekly Report: BTC Retreats from Annual Line, US "Reciprocal Tariff" Policy Triggers Global Market Turmoil

This week, the Crypto Assets market has been significantly influenced by the global macroeconomic situation. The price of Bitcoin (BTC) dropped from $82,379.98 at the beginning of the week to $78,370.75 by the weekend, marking a weekly decline of 4.87% and a volatility of 13.92%. Trading volume increased noticeably, with BTC operating within a downward channel, and it broke below the upper edge of the channel over the weekend. Currently, it is temporarily stabilizing near the 365-day moving average line (.

Global Market Turmoil

On April 2, the U.S. government announced the implementation of an unexpected "reciprocal tariff" policy, triggering severe fluctuations in global financial markets. This policy establishes a minimum baseline tariff of 10% and imposes higher rates on certain countries. In response, countries like China swiftly announced countermeasures.

As a result, the three major U.S. stock indices fell sharply this week. The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones indices dropped by 10.02%, 9.08%, and 7.86%, respectively. The market estimates that U.S. stocks evaporated more than $5 trillion in market value this week. Tech giants like Apple and NVIDIA saw even more significant declines, dropping by 13.55% and 14.01%, respectively.

!["The "Equal Tariff" caused the Nasdaq to fall into a technical bear market, BTC once again tested the annual line, and the market expects the probability of a rate cut in June to exceed 90% (03.31~04.06)])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-50c70d0ea480bdbec68dd3d83dd67811.webp(

Economic Data and Monetary Policy Expectations

Despite the escalation of trade frictions, the U.S. non-farm payroll data for March remained strong. The number of new jobs reached 228,000, far exceeding market expectations. The unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.2%. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve stated that the U.S. economy remains strong, but the new tariff policies could have a negative impact on economic growth and inflation.

The market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have changed significantly. According to a data platform, traders currently expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates 4 times this year, with the probability of a rate cut in June exceeding 90%.

Crypto Assets Market Capital Flow

This week, the crypto market experienced a net outflow of funds, totaling $333 million, with Bitcoin spot ETFs and stablecoins seeing outflows of $178 million and $108 million, respectively. This breaks the previous trend of net inflows for four consecutive weeks.

Although the scale of capital outflows in the crypto market is relatively limited compared to the drastic fluctuations in the stock market, investors still need to be vigilant about the potential for further selling pressure.

Market Selling Pressure Analysis

With the global market in turmoil, the sell-off pressure in the crypto assets market has increased. On-chain data shows that the number of BTC flowing into exchanges reached 188614.7 coins. The sell-off by short-term holders has noticeably intensified, while the sell-off by long-term holders has slightly decreased.

A certain data platform shows that after three consecutive weeks of net outflows, the number of BTC held by centralized exchanges increased by 3116.1 this week, indicating that selling pressure has accumulated.

It is worth noting that since late February, the short-term holder group has been in a state of unrealized losses for most of the time, with the recent unrealized loss ratio reaching 16%, setting a record for the largest unrealized loss in this cycle. This group is under immense pressure, and a collapse could lead to further price declines.

In contrast, long-term holders continue to act as market stabilizers, increasing their holdings by 53,300 BTC this week.

Market Outlook

Unless there is a rebound in the US stock market or the Federal Reserve takes measures such as interest rate cuts, the Crypto Assets market is unlikely to gain significant upward momentum. The global capital market is currently undergoing severe adjustments and repricing, with the greatest uncertainty stemming from subsequent policies of the US government and the Federal Reserve's response.

According to data from a certain analysis engine, the current BTC cycle indicator is 0.375, indicating that the market is in a rising continuation phase. However, considering the uncertainties in the global macroeconomic environment, investors still need to remain cautious and closely monitor market changes.