Global asset reshuffling, Crypto Assets rise sharply

Recently, a series of policy changes and economic indicators have triggered significant fluctuations in the global financial markets. At the beginning of the month, new tariff policies led to a sharp decline in global asset prices, but the subsequent easing of policy attitudes restored investor confidence. This unpredictable situation has compelled market participants to reassess the investment value of various assets.

From the perspective of economic data, although the hard indicators such as employment and consumption in the United States have not yet been seriously affected, the risks have clearly risen. The non-farm payroll data for March, while better than expected, has led to a significant increase in the prices of imported goods due to the new tariff policy. Although there has been a rush to buy goods such as cars in the short term, after excluding this factor, the actual consumption momentum has begun to decline.

What is even more concerning is that the consumer confidence index has experienced its largest decline since 1978. The preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan in April was significantly below expectations, and inflation expectations reached a new high in decades. The deterioration of these soft indicators suggests that the economy may face greater challenges.

The International Monetary Fund has also lowered its global economic growth forecast for the coming years, with particularly noticeable reductions in the growth expectations for the United States and the Eurozone. This reflects the international organization's concerns about the global economic outlook.

In this complex economic environment, the Federal Reserve's policy choices are also faced with a dilemma. Inflation rates remain persistently above target, but the risk of slowing economic growth limits the room for further interest rate hikes. The Federal Reserve Chair stated that they will continue to closely monitor economic data to determine the future direction of policy.

The financial markets reacted strongly to this uncertainty. In early April, US stocks experienced the largest single-day drop since March 2020, with technology stocks being the hardest hit. However, by the end of the month, there was a significant rebound, partly due to market expectations of potential adjustments to tariff policies.

Meanwhile, the Crypto Assets market has demonstrated unique resilience. The price of Bitcoin has surpassed the $94,000 mark, setting a new high for the year, and its performance has risen in tandem with gold, highlighting its "digital gold" attributes. The stability of Bitcoin has attracted a large inflow of funds, pushing the total value of the global Crypto Assets market beyond $3 trillion.

It is worth noting that the market capitalization of Bitcoin has surpassed that of some global tech giants, becoming the fifth largest asset after gold, Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia. More importantly, the long-term correlation between Bitcoin and US tech stocks has begun to decrease, indicating its potential as an independent asset class.

As traditional financial markets experience increased volatility due to various factors, the independence and counter-cyclical characteristics of Crypto Assets may attract more investors seeking asset diversification. However, the future trend of the market will still depend on the development of tariff policies and the overall economic situation. In this uncertain environment, investors need to remain vigilant and closely monitor various economic indicators and policy changes.