The Global Crypto Market Landscape in the Post-Bull Run Era

Since the first half of 2025, the crypto market has entered the "post-bull run" phase, exhibiting characteristics of high volatility and structural differentiation. Although Bitcoin has reached a new high, it quickly corrected. Coupled with the Federal Reserve's policy not shifting towards easing and the tense China-U.S. relations, the market is once again facing uncertainty.

This period is neither a traditional bear market nor a continuation of a bull run, but rather a transitional zone after a cyclical peak. Risk appetite has decreased, and the activity level of funds has weakened, but no systemic liquidity crisis has emerged. Core assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum still have institutional allocation demand, and on-chain activity has slightly declined but has not significantly worsened. At the same time, new sectors such as AI chains, Restaking, and meme coins continue to attract speculative funds, presenting a "strong theme in a weak market" situation.

On a macro level, the global economy in the first half of 2025 is in a state of "unstable de-inflation and growth pressure." The Federal Reserve maintains a cautious stance, and there is disagreement in the market regarding interest rate cuts, with interest rate uncertainty suppressing risk assets. Trade friction between China and the United States over new energy, high technology, and digital infrastructure has become a new variable, increasing market volatility.

However, the globalization level and anti-interference capability of the encryption industry have significantly increased. Many places, including Hong Kong, Japan, and the UAE, have launched supportive policies to promote the launch of crypto ETFs, implement stablecoin regulations, and accelerate Web3 sandboxes, providing a clear participation path for traditional capital. This international support trend partially hedges the impact of tightening U.S. regulations, resulting in a "partially sluggish, globally balanced" market ecology.

Overall, the "post-bull market" is not the end of the bull market, but rather the beginning of a new phase ------ the market places more emphasis on value judgment, users focus more on practical scenarios, and capital tends to long-termism. Short-term macro variables still dominate expectation fluctuations, but the medium to long-term market is transitioning to the next round of technology-application resonance cycle. Finding sectors and targets for certain growth amid the diverse evolution of the global landscape is the core logic of the "post-bull market era."

The Gradual Diminishment of Trade War Shadows and Its Macroeconomic Impact

In the first half of 2025, trade frictions between China and the United States heated up again, involving multiple sensitive areas such as new energy, AI chips, key rare earths, and digital technology export controls. However, compared to the peak of the trade war from 2018 to 2020, this round of disputes is more "symbolic" in nature, with relatively mild actual economic impacts and long-term structural effects, showing gradually "diminishing" characteristics.

The new round of tariff increases in the United States is constrained by inflation pressures and considerations of voter interests. Against the backdrop of high interest rates and high prices, significantly raising tariffs on Chinese goods would further drive up import prices, undermining the momentum of consumer recovery. Therefore, the Biden administration's use of tariffs in an election year tends to be more of a tactical "symbolic" operation. China, on the other hand, continues to maintain a rational and restrained attitude, aiming to stabilize exports and attract foreign investment, and has not conducted large-scale reciprocal countermeasures, keeping overall trade friction in a "limited confrontation" state.

From a macro perspective, although the China-US trade frictions have triggered a short-term rise in risk aversion, they have not led to a systematic reassessment of global financial market risks. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices quickly stabilized after the shock, while the US dollar index and gold maintained strong fluctuations, indicating that market participants' expectations regarding this round of trade disputes have already been reflected in prices. The crypto market also quickly recovered after a brief decline, and its overall resilience has significantly strengthened compared to the past.

For the crypto market, the indirect impact of the trade war mainly manifests in three aspects:

First, the risk appetite is shrinking in the short term. Trade tensions may temporarily undermine market confidence, triggering a strengthening of safe-haven assets, while high-volatility assets such as encryption are likely to become the "liquidity reservoir" that gets sold off.

Secondly, the form of cross-border capital flow has changed. Trade and technology sanctions are often accompanied by enhanced financial scrutiny and cross-border payment regulations, leading some funds to be transferred on-chain through stablecoins, BTC, etc., stimulating an increase in on-chain transaction volume and driving up interest in crypto assets in some Asian markets.

In the end, the trend of de-dollarization in the medium to long term has strengthened. Trade frictions have intensified emerging market countries' doubts about the stability of the dollar system, leading more countries to explore cross-border settlement paths for digital currencies and tokenized assets. This has also indirectly enhanced the strategic position of public chains like Ethereum in the global financial infrastructure.

It is noteworthy that since Q2 2025, as global inflation gradually recedes, central banks in multiple countries in Eurasia begin to contemplate interest rate cuts, and expectations for a shift in the Federal Reserve's stance gradually heat up, coupled with trade negotiations returning to rationality, the sensitivity of the crypto market to geopolitical frictions is declining. The net inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs has stabilized, indicating that institutional investors have gradually regarded trade risks as "background fluctuations" rather than decisive variables.

Overall, although this round of trade war has caused temporary disturbances in sentiment, the actual impact on the crypto market has significantly weakened. The global macro environment is transitioning from "the tail end of tightening" to "moderate recovery," and the risk pricing logic in the crypto market is also shifting from "geopolitical tensions" to "interest rate turning points." During this phase, the importance of macro influences cannot be ignored, but the true driving force of the market may quietly be returning to the internal cycles of technological innovation and on-chain ecological evolution.

Potential Driving Factors for Market Rebound in the Second Half of the Year

After experiencing suppression in the first half of 2025, the crypto market is showing signs of a rebound. The potential for market recovery in the second half of the year mainly stems from the following key driving factors:

Changes in Interest Rate Cycles and the Recovery of Risk Appetite

In the first half of 2025, the global economy gradually emerges from a high inflation scenario, with major central banks adjusting monetary policies. The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are slowing down the pace of interest rate hikes, and the market anticipates that a rate cut cycle may begin in the second half of the year. This has far-reaching implications for the crypto market. A low interest rate environment reduces the return on traditional financial assets, driving funds towards high-risk, high-return assets. Rate cuts may lead institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals to increase their allocation to crypto assets in search of higher returns, pushing the prices of major crypto assets upward.

As the government seeks to stimulate economic vitality through monetary easing policies, the crypto market, as an "alternative investment asset", may become part of the capital market, attracting more institutional funds and retail investors to participate.

Continuous Innovation and Expansion of Decentralized Finance (DeFi)

Although DeFi has experienced market adjustments in the past two years, with the maturation of technology and the expansion of application scenarios, it is expected to welcome a new explosion point in the second half of 2025. Advances in Layer 2 solutions, cross-chain interoperability, and privacy protection technologies have significantly improved DeFi in terms of scalability, cost-effectiveness, and security, attracting more institutional participation.

Especially in the areas of decentralized lending, derivatives trading, and synthetic assets, the DeFi market is gradually penetrating the "gray area" of traditional financial markets. With the innovation of DeFi protocols, institutional funds can hedge through on-chain derivatives, allowing investors to participate in the market in a more flexible and cost-effective manner. This development potential will help drive a structural rebound in the crypto market in the second half of the year.

Continuous Influx of Institutional Investors

The entry of institutional investors is a key factor in the maturity of the crypto market. From Bitcoin ETFs to ETH futures, and the increasing number of institutional funds adding crypto assets, institutional inflows bring more capital and robust risk management mechanisms to the market. With the regulatory framework becoming clearer and the capital market opening up, more traditional financial institutions will participate in crypto asset investment and custody.

Some large enterprises (such as payment giants, internet platforms, investment banks, etc.) also recognize the strategic significance of encryption assets in diversified asset allocation. This not only means that the crypto market's capital pool continues to expand, but also indicates that the crypto market is moving towards mainstream integration with traditional financial markets. In the second half of the year, as more institutions recognize and invest in encryption assets, the market's rebound momentum will be further enhanced.

Breakthroughs and Maturity in Blockchain Technology Applications

The long-term development of the crypto market relies not only on price fluctuations but also on the practical application of blockchain technology. By 2025, significant progress will be made in the application of blockchain across various fields such as finance, supply chains, healthcare, and copyright management. Especially in the areas of cross-border payments, smart contracts, and decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs), blockchain technology continuously breaks down traditional industry barriers, promoting the scaling and maturity of the crypto asset market.

The successful application of these technologies, especially in the fintech and business sectors, will further drive market demand for encryption assets. In the second half of 2025, as blockchain technology makes breakthroughs, its role in the real economy will become more prominent, aiding the recovery and rebound of the crypto market.

With the combination of the above factors, the crypto market has strong rebound potential in the second half of 2025, driven by multiple favorable conditions. The market recovery may become more significant, especially with the support of institutional investors, technological advancements, and the global economy shifting towards monetary easing, the crypto market is expected to welcome broader development opportunities.

The Divergence Trend of Major Chains and Assets

The "Hedge Attributes" of Bitcoin and Ethereum Redefined

In this round of macro turbulence, Bitcoin is once again defined as "digital gold" and an anti-inflation asset. Against the backdrop of expanding divergences in global central bank monetary policies and frequent geopolitical conflicts, BTC has shown relatively strong resistance to price declines.

Ethereum is gradually becoming synonymous with "digital financial platforms." Under the background of enhanced L2 scalability, matured Restaking mechanism, and the explosion of DA (data availability) layer, its value logic has shifted from "Gas fee income" to "on-chain economic operation infrastructure." In the future, Bitcoin will have more attributes of a global reserve asset, while Ethereum may carry more Web3 infrastructure and financial innovations.

Solana and the "High-Performance Chain" Meme Experiment

The Solana chain experienced a Meme craze and an explosion of on-chain innovations from the end of 2023 to the beginning of 2024. High TPS, high user participation, and low Gas fees have made it a popular public chain for Meme speculation and emerging DApp deployment. As the market adjusts, on-chain funds and projects gradually differentiate, with Solana projects that have a "substantial ecosystem" (such as Jupiter and Tensor) beginning to pull away from purely Meme coins, marking a new phase of ecological deepening for Solana. Similarly, public chains like Base, Sui, and Aptos are also facing the ecological precipitation test "after the peak of speculation."

Layer2 and Cross-chain Technology: Multi-chain Collaboration Becomes a Trend

The Ethereum Layer 2 solutions represented by Arbitrum and Optimism have significantly improved transaction efficiency and reduced costs, making the on-chain interaction experience close to that of a "centralized app". As ZK Rollup technology matures further (such as zkSync and Starknet), the synergistic effects of multi-chain coexistence and cross-chain liquidity protocols (like LayerZero and Wormhole) will continue to strengthen. In the future, users will no longer focus on "which chain" but rather on "whether it is user-friendly, safe, and has sufficient liquidity". This brings great development space for cross-chain assets and unified wallets, as well as aggregated liquidity protocols.

Overall, in the second half of 2025, the differentiation of crypto market assets and chains will become more pronounced. With technological advancements and changes in market demand, multiple public chains will competitively occupy market share, and various digital asset application scenarios will become increasingly rich. The trend of differentiation in the crypto market not only promotes the diversified development of different asset categories but also accelerates the overall maturity and improvement of the market structure.

Outlook and Strategy Suggestions ------ Can we expect a new round of market trends in the second half of the year?

As we gradually move into 2025, after experiencing initial turbulence and adjustments, market participants in the crypto market are gradually shifting their expectations towards a more positive direction. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, whether the crypto market can welcome a new round of market rebound depends not only on macroeconomic changes but also closely relates to advancements in blockchain technology, market liquidity, and adjustments in the policy environment. In this context, we propose the following strategic recommendations to help market participants seize future investment opportunities.

Main Driving Factors: Macroeconomics, Technological Advances, and Capital Flows

To determine whether the crypto market can welcome a new round of market rebound, it is first necessary to clarify several key driving factors:

Macroeconomic Recovery: As the global economy gradually recovers from the post-pandemic recession, monetary and fiscal policies in various countries may undergo easing changes. Especially in the United States and Europe, accommodative monetary policies may