Prediction market big whale bets on the U.S. election, expected to profit $50 million.

A mysterious whale makes a huge profit of 50 million dollars on the prediction market

A mysterious trader has placed heavy bets on the prediction market related to the 2024 U.S. presidential election, expecting to gain nearly $50 million in huge profits. The trader, who calls himself "Théo," not only bets that a certain candidate will win the presidential election but also boldly predicts that he will win the popular vote, a view that contradicts the expectations of many political observers.

Théo uses four anonymous accounts to place bets on a certain cryptocurrency prediction market. Although he refuses to reveal his true identity, he has been in contact with a certain media outlet since his betting activities drew attention. In multiple communications, Théo stated that his bets are essentially a challenge to the accuracy of polling data. He claims to be a wealthy Frenchman who has worked as a trader at several banks and has been applying his mathematical knowledge to analyze U.S. polling data since this summer.

Théo believes that the current polls overestimate the support rate of a certain vice-presidential candidate. Unlike many armchair political commentators, he puts his analysis into practice, betting over 30 million dollars.

A mysterious giant whale on Polymarket won 50 million dollars, how did he correctly predict the election results

As the election results were gradually announced, Théo felt delighted. He stated that he woke up at midnight in France to check the results. A strong performance by a certain candidate in Florida gave Théo more confidence in his predictions. Before the election day, Théo predicted that this candidate would receive 49% or 50% of the votes nationwide and win six out of seven key states.

By the afternoon of the second day after the election, analysts predicted that the candidate would win the popular vote, receiving nearly 72 million votes, while the opponent would receive 67.1 million votes, although there were still a large number of uncounted ballots in some states. The prediction market also generally considered this outcome to be almost a foregone conclusion.

Théo stated that his betting purpose is purely to make money, "there is absolutely no political purpose whatsoever". He has repeatedly criticized American polls, believing that mainstream media polls often lean towards one side. He also pointed out that polls fail to accurately reflect the so-called "shy voter effect".

To address this issue, Théo suggests using the "neighboring residents' intention survey" method, which involves asking respondents which candidate they expect their neighbors to support. He believes that this method can indirectly reflect people's true tendencies. Théo cited several polling results that utilized this method, showing that the support rate for a certain candidate was several percentage points lower than the results obtained through traditional methods.

Théo also revealed that he commissioned a major polling agency to conduct a survey to measure the "neighbor effect," but refused to disclose specific details. He suggested that American polling agencies adopt this method in the future to improve prediction accuracy.

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GetRichLeekvip
· 8h ago
Again, the market maker shows large orders. It's really hard to accept but I can't learn from it...
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MetamaskMechanicvip
· 9h ago
All in and it's done!
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CoconutWaterBoyvip
· 9h ago
I have high hopes for him, he is a hardcore analyst.
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ParanoiaKingvip
· 9h ago
All in! It means being confident of winning!
View OriginalReply0
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