The following is a deep analysis and operational suggestions for the ETHUSDT perpetual contract:

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### **Current Market Key Data**
1. **Price Dynamics**:
- Latest Price: 3,012.10 USDT (24h Change +1.40%)
- Mark Price: 3,012.30 USDT
- 24-hour range: **2,961.05 (support) ↔ 3,084.00 (resistance)**
- Basis: **-2.96 USDT** (futures discount, bearish signal)
- Funding Rate: **-0.028%** (negative value, bearish dominance)

2. **Technical Indicators**:
- **MACD(12,26,9)**：
- MACD Histogram: -5.13 (Negative value widening, bearish momentum strengthening)
- DIF(2.39) < DEA(7.52), death cross continues
- **KDJ(9,3,3)**：
- K(38.40) < D(31.93) < J(51.33), oversold area dulling
- **Bollinger Bands ( BOLL )**：
- Middle track: 3,028.20, current price **below middle track** (3,012.10 < 3,028.20)
- Upper track resistance: 3,070.65, lower track support: 2,985.75
- **RSI**: Neutral to Weak (RSI6:45.45, RSI12:48.45)

3. **Market Sentiment**:
- Large Holder Position Long/Short Ratio: No specific value indicated, but the basis discount + negative funding rate shows **bearish dominance**.
- Liquidation Data: Recent liquidation volume has decreased (801.83→0), and market volatility is easing.
- Active sell orders: Significantly higher than buy orders (5-minute sell volume 215,800 vs buy volume 161,900).

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### **Trend Judgement**
- **Short-term trend**: **Bearish consolidation**
- The price continues to be below the Bollinger middle band (3,028), the MACD has formed a death cross and the histogram is expanding negatively, indicating the accumulation of bearish momentum.
- The basis discount (-2.96) and negative funding rate (-0.028%) validate the dominance of the bears.
- **Key Level**:
- **Support**: 2,985 (Bollinger lower band), 2,961 (24-hour low)
- **Resistance**: 3,028 (Bollinger Middle Band), 3,070 (Bollinger Upper Band)

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### **Operation Strategy**
#### **1. Short Position Holders (as shown in the screenshot)**:
- **Current Position**: Short 6 ETH, Opening Price 2,975.91, Liquidation Price 3,227.57 (High Margin of Safety).
- **Suggestion**：
- Take profit reference **2,961** (previous low), stop loss moved up to **3,028** (breakthrough mid-track turns into long signal).
- If the price rebounds to the 3,020-3,028 range, you can **increase the short position**, target 2,985.

#### **2. New Position Direction**:
- **Priority Short**：
- Entry point: **3,020-3,028** (mid-range pressure area)
- Stop Loss: 3,050 (exit if it breaks the previous high of 3,084)
- Target: 2,985 → 2,961
- **Be cautious when going long**：
- Only when the price **stabilizes above 3,028** and the MACD turns golden cross, lightly try to go long, target 3,070.

#### **3. Key Risk Control Points**:
- **Bullish Defense Level**: 2,985 (Bollinger Lower Band), breaking this level will accelerate the drop towards 2,961.
- **Short defense level**: 3,028 (Bollinger middle band), a breakout may test 3,070.

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### **Summary**
- **Today's Main Strategy**: **Short on Rallies**
Use the price rebound to set up a short position in the range of 3,020-3,028, with a target below 2,985.
- **Warning Signal**：
- If the MACD histogram narrows or the KDJ forms a golden cross, be alert for a short-term rebound.
- Pay attention to the basis rate: If it turns positive (futures premium), it may indicate a trend reversal.

> **Reminder**: The current market shows significant bearish sentiment, but the 24-hour trading volume has reached 4.39 million ETH (13.2 billion USDT), and the volatility risk remains high. It is recommended to keep the position ≤5% and strictly set stop-loss. #ETH突破3000#