The US CPI is about to be released, and Powell may resign: where are Bitcoin and the crypto market heading?

1. The US dollar is strong, approaching a three-week high

According to a report by Reuters, the US dollar remained strong against major currencies in Tuesday's Asian morning, with the dollar index (DXY) at 98.104, close to the overnight high of 98.136, the highest level since June 25. The dollar was at 147.75 against the yen, slightly below Monday's high of 147.78.

Factors supporting the US dollar include:

• U.S. Treasury yields rise
• The market's expectations for the persistence of inflation are heating up.
• The uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's maintenance of a high interest rate policy

2. U.S. inflation data becomes a key focus

The U.S. inflation data for June is about to be released, and the market is closely watching its impact on monetary policy. A Reuters survey shows:

• The overall CPI is expected to have an annual growth rate of 2.7%, higher than the previous value of 2.4%.
• Core CPI expectation is 3.0%, higher than the previous value of 2.8%.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell previously stated that summer inflation is expected to rise due to tariffs, which may prompt the Fed to maintain the current interest rate level.

Market views suggest that if inflation falls short of expectations, it will strengthen expectations for interest rate cuts. The current interest rate is 4.25%-4.50%, and federal funds futures indicate that the market expects a 50 basis point rate cut within 2025, with the first cut possibly occurring in September.

III. Trump intensifies criticism of Powell

U.S. President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell again on Monday, stating that current interest rates should be lowered to 1% or lower, rather than remaining above 4%. His dissatisfaction with the Federal Reserve's "tightening of monetary policy" may signal a change in future policy leadership.

Market speculation: If Trump wins the presidential election, Powell may resign early, which could affect the tone of the Federal Reserve's policy.

4. The expectation of China's GDP slowdown puts pressure on the Australian Dollar

The Australian dollar has retreated from last week's eight-month high and is currently at 0.6542 USD. The Australian economy is highly dependent on China, and China's GDP data for the second quarter has become a key variable.

Reuters estimated data shows:

• The Q2 GDP year-on-year growth rate is 5.1%, lower than Q1's 5.4%.
• Reasons include the continued weakness in the real estate market and trade tensions.

If the data falls short of expectations, it will exacerbate the depreciation of the Australian dollar and put pressure on global risk appetite.

5. Bitcoin pulls back below $120,000, market focuses on legislative breakthroughs

After Bitcoin (BTC) reached a historic high of $123,153.22 on Monday, it is currently reported at $119,018.8, showing a slight decline.

The supporting factors include:

• The market has positive expectations for the United States to pass cryptocurrency legislation
• Improvement in risk asset sentiment
• The strengthening of the US dollar failed to dampen BTC sentiment

If relevant legislation is introduced this week (such as tax clarity, stablecoin regulation, ETF approvals, etc.), Bitcoin may hit a new high again.

Conclusion: The global macro and cryptocurrency markets are deeply interconnected, and investors need to closely monitor policy signals

Currently, the five variables of the US dollar, the Federal Reserve, inflation, the Chinese economy, and cryptocurrency legislation are jointly shaping the financial environment for the second half of 2025. For Bitcoin and altcoin investors, especially Russian investors who are focused on global trends, tracking these key indicators will help in planning ahead and grasping the trends.