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Bitcoin surpasses 120,000 Dollar, experiencing a pause in its rise. What does the market sentiment indicated by the difference between perpetual futures and Spot prices suggest?
In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin (BTC) is at 1BTC = 118,000 dollars, with a change of -0.88% compared to the previous day.
Bitcoin has continued to rise beyond its all-time high of $120,000, but due to the accelerated pace of its increase, profit-taking selling became dominant leading up to the 15th.
Rise led by spot
According to an analysis of the divergence between the perpetual futures and spot prices on the largest exchange, Binance, the recent rise in Bitcoin is driven by institutional investors leading the spot market, and there are no signs of a bubble-like bullish market.
According to an analysis by Joaowedson, who provided insights on Cryptoquant, the situation where spot prices have been above perpetual contract (derivatives) prices has continued for a while.
However, the negative range is gradually shrinking, suggesting that market sentiment is shifting towards a more optimistic view.
Analyzing past data, it has been observed that during the periods when this perpetual futures and spot price differential indicator turned green (in the positive zone), Bitcoin recorded significant price increases. For instance, in March last year and in November last year, after the presidential election when the Trump rally began, the indicator turned positive just before a sharp rise, with the expansion of leveraged investments in the derivatives market and buying pressure due to FOMO (fear of missing out) acting as driving forces behind the price increase.
altcoin market conditions
Recently, in the market, there has been an influx of funds into the altcoin market driven by Bitcoin.
According to data from Far Side Investors, the net inflow amount for the Ethereum spot ETF surpassed $5 billion on July 11.
The majority of the inflow was accounted for by BlackRock's iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA). According to Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, the weekly net inflow of ETHA reached $675 million, ranking it 6th among all ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds) available in the United States as of July 11.
The fund tends to be overshadowed by Bitcoin ETFs, but it can be said that it has outperformed traditional equity and bond investment products. The Ethereum ETF has now grown to account for over 10% of the total inflows of Bitcoin ETFs traded in the United States.
Such a rapid influx of funds reflects the growing interest of institutional investors in Ethereum and serves as an important indicator of the maturation of the cryptocurrency market.
What will happen in Crypto Week?
Legislative activities that began as "Crypto Week" in the U.S. Congress are developing into intense partisan disputes.
The Republican Party has submitted three bills to the House: the GENIUS Act, the CLARITY Act, and the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, aiming to establish federal standards for stablecoins, improve the structure of the digital asset market, and prohibit the government from issuing central bank digital coins.
The Republican Party argues that it is essential to maintain the competitiveness of the United States in financial innovation, while the Democratic Party, which has pushed for stricter regulations on the cryptocurrency industry during the previous Biden administration, strongly opposes this.
Representative Jim McGovern criticized that "the interests of corporations are prioritized over those of ordinary citizens." The conflict of interest related to President Donald Trump's cryptocurrency-related businesses has become a focal point, with Representative Maxine Waters and Senator Adam Schiff pointing out that the elements of the bill align with President Trump's business objectives.
Although the Republican Party holds a narrow majority in the House of Representatives, it does not have a majority in the Senate, making the cooperation of the Democratic Party necessary for the passage of legislation. However, the Democratic Party is not showing a willingness to easily compromise.
The Republican Party has shown an intention to revisit cryptocurrency-related legislation before the August recess, but there is less than two weeks left. Such partisan divisions highlight a fundamental political split regarding the direction of U.S. cryptocurrency policy, which could have a significant impact on the future of the industry.
Among them, the GENIUS bill was passed by a majority in the Senate on June 17 and has moved to the House for deliberation.
In the House of Representatives, the Republican Party holds a narrow majority, making cooperation from the Democratic Party essential for approval. However, concerns over requests for amendments from the Democratic Party and potential conflicts of interest have been pointed out as possible obstacles to the deliberations.
On the other hand, there is a view that the momentum for the enactment of the bill is being maintained due to strong promotion from the Trump administration and Republican lawmakers, supportive statements from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen and cryptocurrency and AI special envoy David Sachs, as well as market expectations that the stablecoin market will grow to a scale of 3.7 trillion dollars by 2030.
Bitcoin (BTC) news and price
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You can find the list of past market reports here.