The Trump administration is making a strong push as the US dollar weakens. How far can Bitcoin (BTC) go by 2025?

Bitcoin (BTC) kicked off this week by continuing to reach new highs, once breaking through $123,000 to reach a new peak, and then pulling back to $116,815 during the Asian session today (15th). The U.S. House of Representatives is about to review three bills that could fundamentally reform U.S. monetary policy regarding Crypto Assets. Let's take a closer look at the reasons behind Bitcoin's trend and how far Bitcoin might go in the remaining time of 2025.

Bitcoin's Two Major Catalysts: Capitol Hill Launches "Crypto Assets Week", US Dollar Weakens

According to ActivTrades' Carolane de Palmas, Bitcoin's breakthrough of the $123,000 mark on Monday did not come out of nowhere. This rise coincided with what Republicans are calling "Cryptocurrency Week." During this period, the House plans to debate and possibly pass three landmark bills: the GENIUS Act, the CLARITY Act, and the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act. These three bills address critical regulatory gaps that have long plagued the valuation of digital assets and collectively boost the short-term outlook for the entire asset class.

(Source: Reuters, FXStreet)

1. "GENIUS Act": Deepening Market Liquidity Stablecoin Standards

The "GENIUS Act" proposes rules for dollar-backed stablecoins recognized by the federal government—mandatory 1:1 reserves, monthly public disclosures, and strict definitions of eligible collateral—which will enable the industry to be built on a foundation that banks, retailers, and payment processors can trust. As stablecoins serve as the primary bridge between fiat currency and the cryptocurrency market, clearer standards are expected to bring deeper dollar liquidity, smoother transactions, and lower counterparty risk—conditions that undoubtedly support Bitcoin's price discovery.

2. The CLARITY Act: A Primary Market Roadmap to Unleash Institutional Demand

The "CLARITY Act" will grant the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) primary regulatory authority over "digital commodities" (i.e., most Crypto Assets), while delineating a narrower scope of responsibilities for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in financing transactions. By defining when tokens are considered securities and when they are not, the act addresses the biggest obstacle faced by retirement funds, insurance companies, and other regulated entities: uncertainty. If passed, many marginalized allocators may view Bitcoin and large tokens as investable assets, thereby broadening the buyer base and supporting valuations.

3. Anti-CBDC Surveillance National Legislation: Strengthening Privacy Protection Signals for Decentralized Use Cases

This measure will prohibit U.S. regulators from launching retail central bank digital currency. Although central bank digital currency (CBDC) is conceptually different from Bitcoin, banning CBDC can eliminate a potential competitor while also indicating that Washington is willing to protect financial privacy and free market currency solutions. This position reinforces the notion that decentralized assets like Bitcoin remain an important alternative to state-controlled payment channels.

4. The weakening of the US dollar adds momentum to Bitcoin's breakthrough

Although the development of policies by Congress has undoubtedly driven up the price of Bitcoin, the breakthrough of Bitcoin surpassing $123,000 is also attributed to the significant decline of the US dollar. In the first half of 2025, the US dollar fell by more than 10% against a basket of major developed market currencies, with a nearly 13% drop against the euro alone.

This devaluation makes Bitcoin more attractive to international investors seeking to hedge against further depreciation of the dollar and the long-term change in its status as the world's primary reserve currency.

The decline of the US dollar has boosted the value of risk assets such as stocks and Crypto Assets priced in dollars. Although Bitcoin has reached an all-time high in dollar terms, its price has not yet broken new highs when priced in other benchmarks like the euro or pound (or even other assets like gold or major stock indices), which is no coincidence. This indicates that this breakout is, at least to some extent, a monetary policy effect—the change in the denominator rather than the numerator.

In other words, the new highs of Bitcoin may not only reflect people's enthusiasm for the Crypto Assets space but also their skepticism about the long-term strength of the US dollar and its position in global finance. As the dollar index recently fell to its lowest level since February 2022, this macro backdrop may reinforce bullish sentiment, especially among non-US investors who view Bitcoin as a decentralized hedge tool in an increasingly unstable currency environment.

How far can Bitcoin go in the remaining time of 2025?

Bitcoin recently surged to the 123,000 USD mark, highlighting the swift shift in market sentiment towards digital assets—especially in the context of clear regulations and coordinated macroeconomic forces. This wave of increase is part of an overall upward trend, with Bitcoin reaching new highs in recent weeks, driven by a confluence of political, economic, and structural factors. Legislative progress in Washington, a weakening dollar, heightened inflation concerns, and a shift in investors' views on other value storage tools have all contributed to Bitcoin's renewed appeal.

However, despite the seemingly optimistic short-term backdrop, the road ahead is far from certain. Bitcoin is inherently volatile and often behaves similarly to high-risk assets such as tech stocks—though to a much greater extent. This volatility is both a challenge and a characteristic: it can drive significant upward movements but can also lead to substantial pullbacks, especially under the influence of changes in policy, regulation, or investor sentiment.

Since 2025, Bitcoin's performance has almost outpaced all major asset classes. Year to date, Bitcoin has risen nearly 29%, second only to gold (which has risen about 28%). In contrast, the tech-heavy Nasdaq index has increased by nearly 9%, while the S&P 500 index has risen about 7%. However, most of Bitcoin's gains have occurred in the past few weeks, highlighting the asset's trend of strong, concentrated explosive volatility.

The momentum behind this is not just enthusiasm for Crypto Assets. President Trump's trade war, along with his administration's latest tax cuts and spending plans, has not only increased the fiscal deficit but also raised expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy—historically, both of these factors have been favorable for Bitcoin and other inflation-sensitive assets.

However, whether this wave of rising momentum can be sustained will depend on many factors. The final wording and fate of the three major crypto asset bills—the GENIUS Act, the CLARITY Act, and the Anti-CBDC Act—will play a key role in shaping the future direction of the industry. Institutional adoption rates, investor risk appetite, inflation data, and global central bank policies will also have a significant impact on performance in the second half of the year.

However, one thing is clear at present: after years of regulatory uncertainty and political indifference, Crypto Assets have become the focal point of financial policy discussions in the United States. This shift not only represents a catalyst for short-term trading but may also become a long-term structural turning point for Bitcoin and the entire digital asset ecosystem.

Is this the beginning of Bitcoin's continuous breakthrough, or another chapter in its rise and fall, remains to be seen. But one thing is certain: 2025 will be a decisive year for Crypto Assets.