Recently, the United States released the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which has attracted widespread attention in the market. The data shows that inflation has rebounded as expected, with both year-on-year and month-on-month increases, but the extent is relatively moderate.

Specifically, the core CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year and by 0.2% month-on-month. Food prices rose by 3% year-on-year and by 0.3% month-on-month. Although energy prices decreased by 0.8% year-on-year, they increased by 0.9% month-on-month, with gasoline and electricity prices both rising by 1.0%, and natural gas slightly increasing by 0.05%. Housing costs grew by 3.8% year-on-year and by 0.2% month-on-month. In addition, the operating costs for home goods and furniture also increased, while used car prices declined.

Analysis shows that the monthly growth rate of 0.3% is higher than May's 0.1%, reflecting an acceleration in inflation. The year-on-year growth is quite pronounced, mainly due to a lower base last year and rising energy prices. It is worth noting that although energy prices are the main factor driving inflation up, the continuous increase in food and housing costs cannot be ignored, partly due to tariff policies.

This data has had a multifaceted impact on the market: First, although inflation has rebounded, the month-on-month data is relatively mild, alleviating market concerns about risk assets; Second, if inflation continues to rise and remains sticky in the coming months, it may trigger market worries about inflation, and could even affect the probability of a rate cut in September; Third, this data somewhat confirms the correctness of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's policy of maintaining high interest rates; Finally, CME data shows that after the CPI data was released, the probability of a rate cut in September slightly increased to 61.6%.

Overall, the CPI data reflects that inflationary pressures have increased, but remain within a controllable range. The market has reacted relatively calmly, temporarily in a relaxation phase after heightened tension. However, investors still need to closely monitor future economic indicators, including the upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) and consumer data, to assess whether there is a risk of stagflation. At present, concerns about stagflation do not require excessive alarm, but it remains important to stay vigilant.