Ethereum Price Prediction: ETH Monthly Rise Exceeds 60%, Will It Set a New Historical High This Year?

Ethereum monthly rise of 62% surpasses $3400, institutional buying becomes the core driving force

• According to market data, ETH surged to $3418 on Wednesday (a 5-month peak) and is currently stable in the $3400 range, with a cumulative rise of 62% this month.
• Institutional holdings reach record levels: According to DeFiLlama monitoring, SharpLink Gaming spent $225 million in July to buy ETH, with total holdings reaching $828 million; Bitcoin mining company BitMine has accumulated $500 million worth of Ethereum after raising $250 million in June.

Threefold Fundamental Resonance: Exchange Reserves Depleted, ETH/BTC Exchange Rate Soars, Market Sentiment Reverses

1. Exchange Liquidity Crisis Warning: Santiment data shows that the reserves of ETH in centralized exchanges have plummeted from 11 million at the beginning of the year to 7.22 million, a decrease of 34.3%, reaching the lowest level in three years. Whales are accelerating the transfer of assets to cold wallet storage, and spot selling pressure continues to ease.
2. Capital rotation signal is clear: The ETH/BTC exchange rate surged 20% within two weeks, breaking a months-long downward trend, indicating that capital is shifting from Bitcoin to the Ethereum ecosystem.
3. Extreme Reversal of Market Sentiment: Elfa AI on-chain analysts point out that "fundamentals, sentiment, and institutional capital flows are synchronously bullish for the first time," and Capriole Fund founder Charles Edwards emphasizes: "ETH, which was neglected by the entire industry six months ago, now shows the strongest technical structure in years."

Analysts predict: Aiming for a historical high within the year, but three major risks need to be guarded against

• Upside Target: Charles Edwards predicts that ETH will break through the historical peak of $4878 within 6-12 months, with the current 62% monthly rise providing technical "resonance" support for the breakout.
• Potential Risks: ▶ Derivatives overheating: The funding rate for perpetual contracts has reached a new quarterly high, and the accumulation of long leverage increases the risk of a flash crash. ▶ Exchange liquidity depletion: 7.22 million reserves account for only 6% of circulation, large sell orders can easily trigger price gaps. ▶ ETF Approval Variables: The SEC's rejection rate for spot ETF options trading is still over 70%

Conclusion: $3400 becomes the dividing line for bulls and bears, cold wallet accumulation trend indicates long-term confidence Institutions increased their holdings by over $1.3 billion in ETH this quarter, while exchange reserves plummeted by 34%, laying the foundation for liquidity to challenge historical highs. If the price can hold steady above the $3,400 mark in the short term, the next target is the resistance level of $3,650 on a weekly basis; however, if the derivatives funding rate becomes extreme or if BTC experiences a sudden drop, caution is needed to avoid a pullback to the $3,100 liquidation zone. Investors should monitor three key signals: the withdrawal activity of exchange whales, whether the ETH/BTC exchange rate can stabilize above 0.058, and the progress of BlackRock's ETF options approval. The cold wallet accumulation mode suggests that smart money is betting on ETH surpassing its previous high, but leverage chasing needs to have strict risk exposure controls.