XLM could follow XRP’s monster rally and hit $1 soon: Fact or fiction?

Key takeaways:

• XLM hit a yearly high of $0.52, with immediate targets set on cycle highs at $0.63.
• Peter Brandt said XLM has the most bullish chart, with $0.20 as support and $1 as the breakout level.

Stellar Lumens (XLM) rallied to $0.52 on Friday. The move follows an 87% over the last 7 days and mirrors similar gains from XRP (XRP). On Friday, XRP reached new year-to-date highs at $3.65, and XLM could follow suit as both assets share a 100-day correlation index of 0.95.

XLM one-month chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView## Is XLM is the most bullish chart?

Veteran trader and analyst Peter Brandt said XLM currently exhibits the most bullish market structure among all significant crypto assets. In a recent X post, Brandt shared a monthly chart of XLM, highlighting the technical conditions necessary for a sustained rally. He noted,

“XLM MUST MUST remain above Apr low and MUST MUST close decisively above $1. Until then this chart will remain range bound.”

XLM one-month analysis by Peter Brandt. Source: XAccording to Brandt’s analysis, the critical support sits at the April low of $0.20, roughly 58% below current market prices. However, reclaiming and holding above the $1 threshold remains a formidable challenge.

XLM’s all-time high stands at $0.93, witnessed in 2018, but in the interim, immediate resistance zones near $0.62 and $0.80 could attract significant selling before any breakout toward $1.

Analyzing the XLM/BTC pair offers additional insight to strengthen the bullish case. XLM has consistently underperformed against Bitcoin since the previous cycle, but a bullish break of structure above the 0.000006 level on the BTC pair could mark a trend reversal. A decisive move may catalyze XLM to outperform the broader market, potentially initiating a price discovery phase in Q4 2025.

XLM/BTC one-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewRelated: Dave Portnoy dumped his XRP two weeks ago: ‘I want to cry’

XLM open interest reaches new highs at $589 million

The XLM futures market is gaining momentum, with open interest hitting a new all-time high of $589 million. Notably, funding rates remain neutral compared to Q4 2024, indicating a balanced market with no signs of excessive long or short positioning, an environment often preceding significant price moves.

The recent uptrend appears spot-driven, as the aggregated cumulative volume delta (CVD) has risen sharply to $2.89 billion from $2 billion over the past three months. Interestingly, this increase occurred while XLM’s price had been consolidating between $0.30 and $0.20 since March, suggesting that large buyers quietly accumulated during this period of sideways price action.

XLM price, aggregated spot CVD and funding rate. Source: CoinalyzeSupporting this accumulation thesis is the behavior of the 90-day spot taker CVD. During the consolidation phase, taker CVD was buyer-dominant, reflecting aggressive market buys outpacing sells. Currently, CVD has returned to neutral levels, and historically, XLM has shown its strongest rallies when CVD neutralizes after a buyer-dominant phase.

XLM Spot Taker CVD. Source: CryptoQuant The combination of record-high open interest, a rising spot CVD during consolidation, and a neutral taker CVD points to a potential breakout scenario as the market gears up for further upside in Q3-Q4 2025.

Related: XRP jumps 22% into price discovery as market cap hits a record $210B

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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