#以太坊突破3800#

Ethereum ( ETH ) has performed remarkably recently, surging by 51% in just three weeks in July, far exceeding Bitcoin's 12% increase. As of July 21, the price of ETH broke through $3825, setting a new high since December 2024. There are two key resistance levels ahead - $4100 (last year's high) and $4800 (all-time high).

The Dual Drivers Behind the Surge
Institutional funds are pouring into the Ethereum market. BlackRock recently purchased $406 million worth of ETH, and its Ethereum ETF attracted nearly $500 million in a single day. The U.S. spot Ethereum ETF saw a record inflow of $2.18 billion last week, demonstrating strong institutional confidence.
Technological upgrades are equally indispensable. The Pectra upgrade, completed by the end of 2024, optimized the validator experience, while the implementation of Verkle Trees in 2025 improved state storage efficiency. These improvements provide fundamental support for prices.
The technical indicators show that the Ethereum Relative Strength Index ( RSI ) has reached 84.74, indicating an overbought condition. The MACD indicator has risen to a high level since December 2023, sending a strong bullish signal.

First checkpoint: 4100 dollars
$4100 is both last year's high and a key psychological resistance level. Analyst Captain Faibik points out that breaking through $4000 will confirm the validity of the trend reversal. Tom Lee from Fundstrat believes that Ethereum could reach $4000 before the end of July.
From the perspective of the Elliott Wave Theory, Ethereum is currently in the third wave of an upward trend, with a target price around $4100. The buying volume of call options on exchanges has surged, and the call/put options ratio has reached a six-month high, with many traders preparing for a strike price of $4000.
There are a large number of short positions around 3800 US dollars. If it breaks through, it may trigger a short covering wave, providing additional support for breaking through 4100 US dollars.
Second checkpoint: historical high point of $4800, after breaking through will aim for $5000.
After breaking through 4100 US dollars, the next target is the historical high of 4800 US dollars. From the perspective of wave theory, the fifth wave's upward movement may challenge 4525 US dollars. Longer-term technical analysis indicates that the ultimate extension of the fifth wave is expected to reach 5095-6190 US dollars.
Institutional funds continue to flow in, providing strong momentum. BlackRock has applied to add a staking feature to its Ethereum ETF. CoinShares statistics show that the Ethereum ETF attracted $990 million in funds last week, bringing the total inflow to $5.5 billion since its launch.
The Layer 2 ecosystem explosion is another catalyst. Platforms like Arbitrum and Optimism have seen a surge in trading volume and TVL, marking an increase in adoption. Analysts point out: "Ethereum's position as the foundation of DeFi remains unshakable."

Investment Strategies and Risk Warnings
Long-term investors can adopt a core allocation strategy, holding ETH as a long-term asset while appropriately positioning in leading Layer 2 tokens and DeFi blue-chip projects. Short-term traders should closely monitor technical indicators and set reasonable stop-loss points.
Be cautious if the resistance zone of $3800-4000 is not broken, as a pullback may occur. Regulatory risks, technical risks, and extreme market volatility are all potential risk factors.