Current Adoption Status and Future Outlook of Web3

With the continuous development of blockchain technology, the large-scale adoption of Web3 and the simplification of user experience have again become the focus of industry attention. Let's understand the current adoption speed of Web3, the challenges it faces, and user preferences through a series of data.

Since the emergence of Bitcoin in 2009, the number of cryptocurrency holders worldwide has surged to approximately 560 million, growing at a rate far surpassing that of the largest traditional payment networks over the past five years. However, this figure only accounts for 6.8% of the global population. According to research, the number of cryptocurrency holders increased by 33% in 2023, reaching 420 million, with 34% of them aged between 24 and 35.

From a regional distribution perspective, Asia has shown outstanding performance in the growth of cryptocurrency holders, increasing from 268 million to 326.8 million, a growth rate of 21.8%, highlighting Asia's important role in shaping the cryptocurrency landscape.

However, it is important to note that the figure of 560 million may be exaggerated, as it includes users holding assets on centralized exchanges or other digital asset custodians. According to on-chain metrics, as of 2024, the total number of monthly active addresses on the top 20 Layer 1 blockchains has just exceeded 75 million. Even if we add the monthly active addresses from the most popular Layer 2 networks (slightly below 20 million), the total number of users across all mainstream chains is only around 100 million, and there may be duplication due to one person having multiple addresses.

By observing the new address metric of Bitcoin, we find that the monthly growth rate of new addresses has slowed to the levels seen in 2018, indicating that on-chain activity is shrinking, which is a typical sign of a decline in the network's fundamentals.

The approval of the Bitcoin ETF at the beginning of this year may be the main driving force behind the surge in crypto users. Among non-crypto users, 21% reported that this approval had a positive impact on their investment decisions.

Nevertheless, 44% of non-crypto users still say they would never buy cryptocurrency, primarily due to its value volatility and lack of government protection. Clearly, speculation remains the main play in Web3 and cryptocurrency, but the average portfolio performance of new Web3 users entering after 2021 often finds itself in a state of loss.

Interestingly, according to a study conducted in 2023, the third most popular cryptocurrency among crypto investors is DOGE, a ranking that may not include stablecoins such as USDC and USDT.

Although the recent friendly attitude of the government towards cryptocurrencies may influence the increase in crypto users, it is "stories" like the thousandfold increase of DOGE that can truly spark the interest of users outside the circle. Should the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies soar first, or should users adopt them first? This question is as thought-provoking as "which came first, the chicken or the egg?"

It is certain that Web3 in 2024 is still in the early stages of development, and the future development path remains full of challenges and opportunities.