Bitcoin cycle may break traditional patterns: Bitwise executives predict a sustained bull run in 2026

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, recently stated that Bitcoin could experience a significant pump in 2026, breaking its traditional four-year cycle pattern. He pointed out that changes in the macro environment, increased institutional participation, and the diminishing impact of Halving may cause Bitcoin to no longer be constrained by traditional models. This perspective differs from mainstream predictions that Bitcoin will peak in 2024 or 2025, sparking widespread attention and debate in the market.

Hougan believes the Bitcoin Halving cycle has gradually become ineffective In a video published on the X platform, Matt Hougan clearly stated that he "bets on 2026 being a pump year." He pointed out that as the impact of each Halving on Bitcoin supply gradually diminishes, its driving effect on price also weakens. Currently, the block rewards reduced by each Halving of Bitcoin no longer have a significant impact on the market as they did in the past.

In addition, Hougan emphasized that the shift in U.S. macro policy is also changing market trends. Presidential candidate Trump is putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to push for interest rate cuts. If this policy is implemented, it could lead to funds flowing out of the bond market and into risk assets like Bitcoin.

Institutionalization and regulatory improvements reduce market risks Hougan also pointed out that the institutionalization of the cryptocurrency market is deepening, and as the regulatory framework becomes clearer, the risk of market explosions is decreasing. He stated that more and more traditional financial institutions are joining the Bitcoin market, driving its long-term growth, and may extend its pump cycle, surpassing the traditional four-year rhythm.

Risks Remain: Bitcoin Financial Positioning Structure Becomes a Concern Despite an optimistic outlook for the future, Hougan also pointed out the potential risks posed by Bitcoin financial companies. These companies acquire Bitcoin through debt issuance or equity financing, which may expose them to leverage risks during market corrections.

Asset management company VanEck has also expressed similar concerns, warning that once the market reverses, such companies may become over-leveraged, leading to systemic pressure.

Hougan summarized: "I think this is more like a continuous and stable pump, rather than a super cycle." Nonetheless, he also warned that the market will still face volatility.

CryptoQuant CEO: Institutional whales have changed the market structure Hougan's views echo those of CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju. Ju stated that Bitcoin's four-year cycle has "died" as whale behavior patterns have changed.

He pointed out: "The old whales are selling coins to new long-term holding institutional whales. The scale adopted by the institutions exceeds our expectations."

Traditional cycle views still have supporters: Could October see a peak? However, not all analysts agree with this view. Renowned crypto analyst Rekt Capital believes that if Bitcoin replicates the cyclical pattern of 2020, the market will peak 550 days after the Halving in April 2024, which still aligns with the four-year cycle theory.

This divergence indicates that whether Bitcoin has detached from its historical rhythm remains an unsolved mystery.

"Digital Gold" narrative heats up, Tom Lee is optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term potential Analyst Tom Lee recently stated on CNBC that Bitcoin can be viewed as "digital gold," and boldly predicted its long-term target price to be 1 million dollars.

Lee pointed out that with the passage of the GENIUS Act, the progress in crypto regulation is encouraging, boosting Bitcoin's positioning as an emerging asset class.

He believes that Bitcoin reaching $200,000 to $250,000 is an achievable goal, and this price is still only a small part of the gold market value.

Conclusion Whether Bitcoin is still in a four-year cycle has become a core discussion topic in the market. On one hand, institutional figures represented by Matt Hougan and Ki Young Ju believe the cycle has been restructured; on the other hand, technical analysts remain convinced of the validity of traditional models. With multiple variables such as macro policies, institutional holdings, and regulatory developments intertwining, the future price path of Bitcoin may become more complex. For crypto users, the years 2025 to 2026 will be a crucial observation window.