The reason why Bitcoin cannot break through 123,000 USD has been found: a large number of BTC buyers cannot transfer their holdings, and the silence of sellers has led to a failure of bullish sentiment.

Bitcoin (BTC) cannot replicate the wave that surged to a peak of $123,000 earlier in July. Analysts say the key reason is that a large number of Bitcoin sellers are unable to turn over their holdings, and the sellers' silence has led to a failure of the bullish momentum. A rebound requires a complete breakout of the resistance level.

In a weak market, this kind of lackluster performance usually signals bullish intent. However, despite the obvious lack of selling pressure, Bitcoin has not surged. Currently, the pump remains stagnant.

Bitcoin selling volume plummets, indicating that the bears have exited

One of the most obvious signs of sellers retreating is the sharp decline in the selling volume of recipients. On July 25th, the selling volume of Bitcoin reached a local peak of nearly 17.8 billion dollars. Since then, this amount has decreased by nearly 93%, down to 1.2 billion dollars as of the time of writing this article.

The decrease in the aggressiveness of sellers indicates that the bears are no longer driving the market.

(Source: CryptoQuant)

Typically, when sellers disappear like this and prices remain strong, it lays the foundation for a pump. However, in the case of Bitcoin, the price shows no signs of movement. This does not undermine the bullish sentiment; it merely indicates a pause in the upward trend, not a failure. What is now lacking is just a trigger point.

The eating single selling volume tracks the trading value of sellers taking the initiative: that is, people selling after buying. A decline in this indicator suggests that the number of traders trying to quickly sell off tokens is decreasing, which often reflects a reduction in the sellers' fear or fatigue.

NUPL peak continues to trigger profit taking

The missing trigger factors may be psychological factors, while the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) helps explain the reasons behind it. NUPL measures the amount of unrealized profits in the system, which can roughly indicate when holders may feel the impulse to sell.

In the past two weeks, Bitcoin has repeatedly tested the threshold of 119,000 to 120,000 USD, occurring on July 14, July 17, July 22, and even July 27. Each time, the NUPL reached a peak between 0.57 and 0.58, while each time the BTC price failed to break through and fell back.

This is not a coincidence. This is a signal from the market: $119,000-$120,000 has become a key profit-taking area.

(Source: CryptoQuant)

Since the last rejection, the NUPL price has slightly declined but remains stable. This indicates that some profit-taking has been completed. Traders have locked in around $120,000 in gains, and the market is currently digesting this volatility without a new wave of sell-offs.

NUPL represents Net Unrealized Profit and Loss. It compares the market value of Bitcoin to its realized market value, essentially telling us how much profit holders are sitting on without selling. When NUPL is high, the motivation to take profits is stronger. When NUPL declines while the price remains unchanged, it indicates that some profit-taking has occurred, which could lead to a market pump again.

Bitcoin price remains strong, but needs to break through resistance level completely

Despite Bitcoin's price attempting to break through $119,000 multiple times and failing, it is currently still above the key support levels of $117,000 and $118,000. This area is supported by the 0.382 and 0.5 Fibonacci retracement levels, both of which have remained stable during multiple tests.

The seller has exited the market, but the buyer cannot resell.

(Source: Trading View)

The resistance hindering the rise of Bitcoin is the technical and behavioral resistance, right around the resistance level of 120,000 USD.

The 0.786 Fibonacci level is right here, which is also the place where NUPL recently reached its peak. Unless Bitcoin firmly breaks through this area, its pump will remain stagnant.

But if it breaks through 120,000 USD, this structure will quickly open up. Bitcoin may head towards the target of 122,000 USD or even higher. With selling pressure disappearing, profit-taking, and strong support levels, the conditions for Bitcoin's next round of pump still exist; it just needs a little push.

However, if the Bitcoin price falls below $117,000, the bullish assumption will fail in the short term, opening the door to $114,000, which makes the entire structure bearish.