Glassnode: If Bitcoin breaks through 105,000-125,000 USD, the target price could reach 141,000 USD.

Bitcoin has recently withstood the "weekend pressure test," remaining stable despite nearly 9.6 billion dollars worth of BTC being dumped. According to a report from Glassnode on July 29, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to hover between 105,000 and 125,000 dollars, but the report notes that once a breakout occurs, prices could surge to 141,000 dollars. This analysis delves into Bitcoin's market structure, particularly the cost basis of short-term holders (STH), capital flows, and changes in on-chain indicators.

Short-term holder (STH) cost basis: Key pivot

(Source: Glassnode)

The cost basis for short-term holders (STH) is a key pivot for Bitcoin's bullish and bearish range, currently sitting near $105,400. This indicator is crucial in defining the subsequent trend of BTC. Prices repeatedly face resistance in the STH +1 range (around $125,100), which is referred to as the "overheated" area. If it indeed closes above this level, the market focus will shift to the STH +2 range (around $141,600), where selling pressure has historically intensified.

Weekend Stress Test: Market Depth and Liquidity

(Source: Glassnode)

The report also emphasizes that the weekend stress tests have passed. Network liquidity absorbed one of the largest allocation events of this cycle, as early investors transferred approximately $9.6 billion worth of Bitcoin through Galaxy Digital in both the market and over-the-counter trading platforms. The spot price dropped to $115,000, before stabilizing around $118,000, indicating that the market has depth even during the weekend trading lull. The report estimates that the on-chain embedded liquidity "realized market value" exceeds $1 trillion, which helps explain the reasons for its rapid stabilization.

In addition, traffic indicators soared during the event period. Net realized profit and loss reached a record 3.7 billion dollars, with profits being 571 times the losses. Such levels occur on only 1.5% of days. The report warns that extreme profit-taking usually appears before local weakness, but does not always immediately signify that the market has peaked, as previous peaks often exhibit lag.

Working Capital: Long-term Holders and Unrealized Profits

The rotation of positions still shows a positive trend. The net realized profit and loss of long-term holdings soared to a historical high of 2.5 billion dollars, setting a record for the largest single loss for sellers, due to the strong allocation of long-term holders (LTH). The LTH/STH supply ratio contracted by 11% within 30 days, similar to the distribution fluctuations near each historical peak in this cycle.

Nevertheless, over 97% of the supply remains in profit, with an unrealized profit total reaching $1.4 trillion, and the proportion of unrealized profits to market capitalization has returned to levels that represent a mix of excitement, risk, and demand. LTH still holds 53% of the network's wealth, and the remaining supply can be unlocked at higher prices.

The cost basis distribution shows that high trading volume nodes are between $117,000 and $122,000, while low trading volume "gaps" are between $115,000 and $110,000, indicating that the market may retest during weak conditions. In the STH subgroup, the band area from 24 hours to 3 months is between $110,000 and $117,000, reinforcing the role of this area as the first support level. The range of $105,000 to $125,000 will remain unchanged until buyers are convinced to pay $125,000.

Conclusion:

Glassnode's report provides an in-depth on-chain analysis of Bitcoin's recent trends. Despite facing selling pressure over the weekend, Bitcoin has shown strong resilience, thanks to its deep market liquidity and the ability to attract institutional funds. The cost basis and breakout of short-term holders in overbought areas will be key in determining whether Bitcoin can challenge the new high of $141,000.