Peter Brandt: The crypto community is delusional about Bitcoin prices

Peter Brandt, one of the most respected chart analysts in the financial world, claims that anyone who believes they can accurately predict cryptocurrency price movements is simply "delusional." With over 803,000 followers on X and a solid track record since starting commodity trading in 1975, Brandt continues to demonstrate that experience and a practical perspective can sometimes be more important than the complex lines drawn on charts.

Crypto traders "deceive themselves" with price predictions

At the age of 79, with nearly half a century of fighting in the financial market, Brandt candidly shares:

"Anyone who looks at the chart and tries to tell you how everything will unfold is essentially just deceiving themselves."

This may not be what the community that loves to "draw charts" on X wants to hear, after many years of drawing trend lines, chart analysis of the inverted Bart Simpson pattern, or Fibonacci spirals. But according to Brandt, the real purpose of price charts is simply to show where the price has been and where it currently is.

He explains:

"In most cases, in terms of probability, the market tends to continue in a certain direction with some fluctuations within a predictable range."

Therefore, the best thing that Brandt – or any trader – can do with the chart is to identify asymmetric risk opportunities:

"Give me a point where I can risk 1 dollar to have a chance to earn 4 dollars. At that point, I don't care if I'm only right half the time."

Source: XDù the viewpoint may be somewhat "shocking", but Brandt's achievements are hard for many to deny. According to economist and author Barry Ritholtz, Brandt has been recognized as one of the 30 most influential figures in the financial sector – a testament to his credibility and significant influence in the field of chart analysis.

What is surprising is that Peter Brandt did not come from a finance background. He graduated in journalism from the University of Minnesota in 1970 and started his career in advertising, working with major clients like McDonald’s. His opportunity came when a neighbor in the soybean industry introduced him to the commodities market, leading Brandt to abandon his promising advertising career to start trading corn in the 1970s. Due to significant volatility caused by weather and agricultural policies, this market brought him substantial profits. Later, Brandt moved on to manage institutional accounts before founding the proprietary trading firm Factor Trading Co., which he still operates today. His book "Diary of a Professional Commodity Trader" topped the trading book charts on Amazon for 27 weeks in 2011.

The Turning Point that Brought Brandt to the World of Cryptocurrency

Five years after topping the Amazon charts with his famous trading book, in May 2016, Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal sent Brandt a Bitcoin chart when the currency was only at 450 USD.

"Raoul sent me a chart and said, 'Peter, I really value your opinion. What do you think about this chart?' I looked and exclaimed, 'Oh my, this, this is amazing,'" Brandt recalled.

Immediately, he called Pal back to ask how to buy Bitcoin – a field he admitted he had no experience in. Just a few months later, Brandt easily doubled his investment by selling his Bitcoin at $1,000 at the end of the year.

"At that moment I thought, I really am a genius," he laughed.

Source: XTừ đó, Brandt became one of the most outspoken and influential chart analysts in the cryptocurrency community, known for his accurate forecasts but sometimes controversial as well. In December 2017, less than two years after the conversation with Pal, he predicted the peak of Bitcoin "almost exactly to the day" and warned of an 80% correction – which occurred within a year.

Source: XDù vậy, Brandt also admits that he has some "terrible predictions," sometimes more sarcastic than serious forecasts. For example, last June, he joked about a scenario where Bitcoin would drop by 75%, just one month before this cryptocurrency reached a new peak at 123,100 USD.

"Maybe I need to add a few winking emojis for people to understand my sarcastic intention," he said.

Although it has been half a century in the market, Brandt believes that Bitcoin has not yet fully entered a phase of stability and institutionalization.

"I don't think we have escaped the major corrections. In this market, anything can happen," he concluded.

To succeed in the market, Brandt believes that emotions cannot dictate trading decisions. He is known for his sharp comments, unafraid to "touch" communities like ETH or XRP.

"Whether it's Bitcoin or Solana, anything has its price. It is something to trade, not to worship," he said.

According to Brandt, he is simply a chart analyst, willing to share what he sees even if it may upset many people. "I put the chart up, and if it has a negative meaning, I am immediately labeled as a hater," he laughed. In fact, many of Brandt's statements have been controversial, such as when he called ETH "worthless junk" back in April, or commented, "Every dog has its day — and today is ETH's" when the price of this coin surged in June.

Even XRP is not immune to criticism, but in January, Brandt unexpectedly posted a message to "greet" XRP holders, acknowledging that the sharp declines in the past had led him to a negative view. He also revealed that he owns both XRP and ETH, and asserted:

"What I say on Twitter may or may not reflect what I actually hold."

With Bitcoin, Brandt has a special trust. He stated that he holds a large portion of BTC, of which about 40% is ready to "sell all" when needed, as he bought at a very low price and believes in the long-term value of this currency.

Peter Brandt: "The Bitcoin price surge has started – but don't be deluded about the $1 million mark"

Brandt believes that the Bitcoin market has truly entered a new bullish cycle, and we are going deeper than what most investors think – despite the market sentiment becoming increasingly optimistic.

"The interesting thing is that many people only become excited when the price is at its peak and are pessimistic at the bottom. That is how market psychology operates: price nurtures psychology, and psychology in turn impacts price," Brandt stated.

Source: XUnlike most industry experts who often evaluate Bitcoin based on halving cycles, Brandt takes a different approach: he observes the entire bull market cycle – from the bottom of the bear market to the next peak.

According to him, the current price increase cycle started in November 2022, meaning it has lasted nearly three years – a fairly long period compared to previous cycles.

Brandt also emphasized the phenomenon he calls "exponential decline" in profits over each cycle.

With a bottom level of around 15,000 USD and a new peak of over 123,000 USD, the current cycle has only increased about 8 times – a much lower increase compared to previous cycles.

"Therefore, saying that Bitcoin is extremely optimistic is not accurate," he emphasized.

In a recent forecast, Brandt stated that Bitcoin could reach 125,000 – 150,000 USD around August–September. However, he believes that predictions of a price of 1 million USD are "irresponsible," although he does not rule out the possibility of this happening in the future.

"Just because governments are drowning in debt and continue to print money, it doesn't mean that Bitcoin has to reach 1 million USD," Brandt concluded.

Taylor