CEO MARA warns that the wave of Bitcoin treasury could put price pressure.

Fred Thiel, CEO of MARA Holdings, issued a warning during the financial report press conference on Tuesday, commenting on the increasing wave of Bitcoin treasury companies. He is concerned that too many companies rushing to accumulate Bitcoin could negatively impact the price of BTC, while also putting investors at risk.

"Any advantage in the market will gradually disappear when there are too many companies targeting it... not everyone can succeed," Thiel stated.

With a market capitalization of over 6 billion USD, MARA is currently the largest publicly traded Bitcoin mining company in the world and the second largest publicly traded holder of Bitcoin, only after Strategy.

Thiel acknowledged that Strategy has been very successful in creating shareholder value and pioneering the Bitcoin treasury company model. However, he warned that too many companies pursuing this model could create systemic risks.

According to data from The Block, the total number of Bitcoin held by treasury companies has nearly tripled in the past year, reaching 774,000 BTC ( equivalent to more than 90 billion USD ), amid Bitcoin reaching new highs after President Donald Trump took office. Strategy currently holds more than 620,000 BTC — far surpassing all other competitors.

Currently, there are more than 200 companies that have adopted a cryptocurrency accumulation strategy, primarily focused on Bitcoin.

The amount of BTC that listed companies are holding | Source: The Block## Unlike ETFs

A new emerging metric for evaluating the health of cryptocurrency treasury companies is mNAV (, the multiple of Net Asset Value ) — calculated by dividing the enterprise value by the total value of digital assets held by the company. Thiel warns that this metric could be vulnerable if market conditions change.

"What will happen if companies holding coins see mNAV drop to 1, or worse, negative — like in the case of Grayscale before? They may be forced to sell coins to balance," he said.

In the past, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) used to trade at a price higher than mNAV, but later, when the market became more competitive, GBTC fell into a discount state, forcing the company to convert to an ETF — but witnessed a capital outflow of billions of USD, while the spot ETFs from BlackRock and Fidelity attracted strong inflows.

"The Bitcoin treasury company is not like an ETF," Thiel emphasized.

Similar to ICO

Thiel warns that if Bitcoin prices fall, the treasury company will be more heavily affected than ETF issuers.

"If there are signals of a correction, a wave of sell-offs may occur, causing the situation to deteriorate quickly," he said. "These treasury companies are like ICO projects — too much good can also ruin everything."

The ICO craze in 2017 raised billions of USD but then collapsed, with many projects accused of being scams.

Thiel's negative remarks may be aimed at positioning MARA as a more attractive investment compared to its competitors.

In the Q2 financial report, MARA wrote: "Our treasury has helped MARA become one of the largest holders of Bitcoin in the world. But what sets MARA apart is that most of that Bitcoin comes from mining activities, not from purchases."

However, MARA is still actively raising additional capital to expand its Bitcoin holdings. On Monday, the company announced that it has raised approximately 940.5 million USD to support the purchase of more Bitcoin and other business objectives.

Although MARA just recorded a quarter with adjusted EBITDA, revenue, and record net income, the company's stock only increased slightly by 2.95% in Wednesday's trading session.

Whales Start Selling Off

Although he does not predict that the price of Bitcoin will crash, Thiel believes the market may adjust in the short term.

"When long-term whales start to sell, that's a clear signal... They usually sell when the market peaks," he said. "Those buying at this time to establish treasury companies may be buying at the peak. And at some point, demand will weaken."

Thiel concluded that he does not believe the price of Bitcoin will drop by 80%, but a correction of 20–30% is entirely possible.

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