Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction: The $110,000 support line is likely to be tested, beware of long positions liquidation plummet.

Bitcoin(BTC) has retraced 4.26% from the local high of $120,000, currently situated in a key turning area, attracting traders to position for a bottom play and short squeeze(Short Squeeze). However, the perpetual futures market data shows that long positions are overly crowded—over 70% of the open interest(Open Interest) is long, and a whale has established a $45 million long position around $11,285 with 40x leverage, currently having unrealized gains of 1.28%, with more high-leverage follow-up positions likely to enter.

The current market risk sentiment has cooled, with Bitcoin oscillating in a narrow range of 3.5% above the $110,000 supply wall, while the dominance of derivatives has increased. Despite the price pullback, the total open contracts have shown a slight increase against the trend (from $79.56 billion to $79.7 billion), coupled with a positive funding rate of ( + 0.0046% ), indicating that leveraged long positions are unusually stubborn. Whales continue to bet (on-chain monitoring has discovered another $3.4 million in long positions, with a liquidation line at $11,264), revealing a directional belief against the market trend. However, the depth of the mainstream CEX order book reveals weak liquidity in the spot market: buy orders (green orders) are thinly supported, while sell orders (red orders) face heavy pressure, and whales may take this opportunity to engage in slippage arbitrage ( Slippage Gain ). In the context of weak spot demand, whales' high-leverage long positions seem more like a precisely laid liquidity trap ( Liquidity Trap )—profiting from volatility created by luring in buyers. If the buy wall below is not reinforced, the $110,000 defense line for Bitcoin may not be breached by panic selling, but rather due to whales luring long positions and then shorting, necessitating caution against potential long liquidation waterfall risks.

( One ) Key Turning Point Game: short positions Squeeze Expectations vs Leveraged long positions Trap Bitcoin has fallen 4.26% from the peak of $120,000, and the current price is testing a key technical turning point, triggering traders' expectations for bottom formation and a textbook-style short squeeze (Short Squeeze). However, perpetual futures market data reveals potential risks: over 70% of the open contracts for Bitcoin across the network are long positions, indicating a clear crowded trade (Crowded Trade) characteristic.

( Whale's high-leverage betting attracts followers, mainstream CEX long positions account for 60% On-chain data shows that a certain Whale established a Bitcoin long position worth $45 million with leverage as high as 40 times around the price of $11,285, and currently, this position has unrealized gains of about 1.28%. Subsequently, more similar high-leverage follow-up orders emerged in the market. Amid the overall market hesitation, the Whale's aggressive buying has sparked speculation: does it hold special information, or is it stepping into a liquidity trap? The current market risk sentiment has turned cold again, with Bitcoin oscillating within a narrow range of 3.5% above the key support level of $110,000. As spot trading cools down, the derivatives market gains dominance, and the risk of speculation continues to rise.

) Three ( Open positions in the opposite direction increased, funding rate exposes long positions obsession It is worth noting that despite a 4.26% pullback in Bitcoin prices, the total amount of open contracts across the network has slightly increased from $79.56 billion to $79.7 billion, indicating that leveraged funds have not yet withdrawn. Coupled with the perpetual futures funding rate )+0.0046%(, the bullish sentiment in the derivatives market remains significant. Whales continue to increase their long positions (another $3.4 million long position was detected on-chain, with the liquidation point set at $11,264 and currently in profit), indicating that large funds maintain a strong directional belief in a volatile market.

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(Source: Coinglass)

) Four ( The emergence of trend-following trades creates a herd effect, with liquidity becoming a key variable In general, early long positions profits can trigger follow-up copycat trades ) Copycat Positioning (. The fact that mainstream exchanges have as much as 60% of long positions is a manifestation of this herd behavior ) Herd Behavior (. However, in a thin liquidity market, while position size is certainly important, trading intent ) Intent ( is even more critical. The current scenario may evolve into two situations: either the prelude to a "cooperative" short squeeze, or a carefully designed trap—by luring over-leveraged longs to enter, followed by reverse operations that trigger a liquidity sweep ) Liquidity Sweep (.

) Five ( Order Book Depth Warning: Whale May Arbitrate Due to Weak Liquidity The order book depth data from mainstream CEX exchanges demonstrates weak liquidity in the spot market: buy orders (green orders) are extremely sparse with no significant bid walls )Bid Walls( providing support; in contrast, sell orders (red orders) are more densely accumulated. This depth imbalance creates an ideal operating environment for Whales: when some Whales with long positions are already in a state of unrealized gains, even small selling pressure may lead to severe price slippage )Slippage( due to weak buy orders below. Once the price of Bitcoin is pushed into these low liquidity areas, the Whales gain a golden opportunity to accumulate at low prices, while retail investors can only passively respond at the market's edge.

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) Warning against liquidity traps: Whales may short sell by leveraging volatility In the current market environment, the massive long positions taken by whales should not be simply interpreted as pure bullish sentiment; it is more likely a liquidity strategy that has been precisely calculated. Given the still weak demand for Bitcoin spot, the current pattern resembles a setup for arbitrage through the creation of volatility. If a more substantial buy wall support cannot be formed in the short term, Bitcoin's $110,000 defense line is likely to face testing—breaching strength may not stem from panic selling, but rather from whales going short after successfully enticing long positions. This is precisely the operating mechanism of the classic liquidity trap, which requires high alertness from market participants.

Conclusion: Bitcoin is at a critical technical juncture of long and short positioning, where the contradiction between Whale high-leverage long positions and weak market liquidity poses a core risk. The crowded long positions in the derivatives market, while brewing potential short squeezes, expose liquidity flaws in the order book, giving Whales room to manipulate. Investors need to closely monitor the strength of the $110,000 support, the depth recovery of spot buying, and the positioning trends of Whales. Before there is a substantial recovery in spot demand, high-leverage long positions must be cautious not to become prey in the liquidity hunting by Whales, and strictly controlling the risk of liquidation remains the top priority.