Crypto Market Weekly Report: BTC Fluctuates at High Levels, Awaiting a New Breakthrough

Since the low point in April, BTC has rebounded by as much as 50%, outperforming the Nasdaq index and reaching a new all-time high.

However, the significant rise in the short term has accumulated some selling pressure. Since May 22, a large-scale sell-off has occurred in the BTC market. This has put some pressure on BTC, which is at a high level and leading the US stock market, becoming a driving force for the price decline.

This Thursday, due to the spread of panic in the market, the BTC price dipped to the support level of 100,000 USD. Subsequently, the price continued to rebound, returning above the ascending trend line.

As the US stock market adjusts, the buying power of the BTC spot ETF channel has converged, making it difficult for BTC to absorb selling pressure and continue to rise in the short term. It is worth noting that with the price correction, the scale of outflows from exchanges has significantly increased this week, indicating that new funds are taking the opportunity to accumulate chips.

The positive non-farm payroll data has created a good atmosphere for BTC's stabilization and rebound, but to break through new price ranges, greater progress may be needed in areas such as tariff policies, encryption regulation, or Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

Policies, Macroeconomic Finance and Economic Data

The U.S. non-farm payroll data for May shows an increase of 139,000 jobs, slightly above the market expectation of 126,000, marking a new low since February. The unemployment rate in May remained at 4.2%, showing no signs of deterioration.

Data performance slightly exceeded expectations, driving the three major U.S. stock indices up, while gold fell.

Currently, market trading mainly revolves around two main lines:

1. Based on economic and employment data, judge whether the U.S. economy is experiencing a "soft landing," "hard landing," or falling into recession. The current market leans towards the expectation of a "soft landing," meaning economic growth gradually slows to a sustainable level without severe recession or mass unemployment. The current economic and employment data align with this characteristic, as GDP growth has slowed but is due to the Federal Reserve's proactive cooling, inflation is decreasing in an orderly manner, the unemployment rate is stable, and new jobs have not significantly decreased. This also suggests that the timing for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts may be delayed.

2. Anticipate the medium- to long-term economic and market changes that may be triggered by tariff policies and other government measures, and price in advance through proactive trading. The market decline in early March to April reflected concerns over tariff policies and their potential to trigger inflation and worsen employment, while the rebound after April 7 showcased optimistic expectations for an economic "soft landing" following policy easing.

The current market pricing is relatively optimistic, with limited room for further short-term increases. There is still uncertainty regarding tariff policies. Although there have been recent high-level calls, negotiations are still ongoing, and it will take time to reach an agreement.

Overall, driven by slightly better-than-expected non-farm data and the slow progress of tariff negotiations, U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar maintained a fragile balance over the past week, tilting slightly towards optimism.

crypto market

Since April, BTC has led the rebound ahead of the Nasdaq. The US stock market is building momentum to challenge previous highs, while BTC reached an all-time high on May 22.

From a technical indicator perspective, BTC underwent a two-week correction after reaching a new high. Last week it fell by 3.07%, and this week it has fluctuated significantly with a slight increase of 0.08%. The weekly chart shows a long-legged doji pattern. During the adjustment period, trading volume has been shrinking.

The maximum pullback over the past two weeks is approximately 10%, remaining above the previous support level, with the lowest point touching the ascending trend line.

With the US stock market yet to break new highs, this adjustment of BTC after reaching a new high is expected and is a healthy adjustment. It is difficult to avoid a period of oscillation, and to break new highs and reach a new level may require greater progress in areas such as tariff policy, cryptocurrency regulation, or Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

Selling Pressure and Sell-off

Since April, BTC has rebounded from its low point with a maximum increase of 50%.

As prices hit new highs, both short-term and long-term funds have seen a certain degree of profit-taking. This selling pressure peaked on May 22 and has gradually weakened since then.

It is worth noting that, alongside the reduction in sell-offs, the outflow of BTC from centralized exchanges is increasing. This week, the outflow reached 76,520.72 coins, far exceeding the usual weekly level of 10,000 to 20,000 coins. This large-scale outflow may reflect long-term capital's recognition of the current price.

Fund In and Out

After short-term profits, funds in the ETF channel have also seen a slight outflow. In the past two weeks, BTC spot ETFs have experienced fund outflows, with $135 million last week and $128 million this week. This outflow occurred against the backdrop of a significant rise in BTC and fluctuations in the US stock market.

Looking at it alone, it's hard to predict when ETF funds will flow back in. However, considering the overall trend of the US stock market, concerns about a significant decline may not need to be overly emphasized. Although there is technically a possibility of continuing to pull back to $100,000, timing it is quite difficult. In a fragile balance of supply and demand, a breakout may occur in just a day or two.

Cycle Indicator

According to eMerge Engine data, the EMC BTC cycle indicator is 0.625, in an upward phase.