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Bitcoin Spot ETF: The Catalyst for a Bull Run and a Driver of Encryption Asset Mainstreaming
Bitcoin Spot ETF: Potential Bull Run Engine and Market Regulation Driver
After experiencing a long bear market, the cryptocurrency market urgently needs a new breakout point. The Bitcoin Spot ETF is seen as the most likely factor to play this role, similar to the market frenzy that was sparked when the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust received SEC approval for its application in 2020.
Although the SEC is cautious about reviewing Bitcoin Spot ETFs, the market remains optimistic about their eventual approval. Predictions show that the probability of Bitcoin Spot ETF approval within this year is 75%, and it could reach 95% by the end of 2024. This could be a significant boon that ends the bear market and triggers a new bull run.
Overview and Attraction of Bitcoin Spot ETF
Bitcoin spot ETF is a fund that allows investors to trade real Bitcoin at the current market price. It directly holds Bitcoin, enabling investors to participate in the market without managing personal wallets. Compared to futures ETFs, spot ETFs have lower risk and are considered a more legitimate investment option.
As an exchange-traded fund, Bitcoin Spot ETF can be traded on stock exchanges, offering flexible investment strategies. It provides traditional financial institutions with a compliant Bitcoin investment tool, promoting the integration of cryptocurrency into the mainstream financial sector.
The reasons why capital favors Bitcoin Spot ETFs include:
Bitcoin Spot ETF Application Status
Since 2013, the United States has seen multiple applications for Bitcoin Spot ETFs, all of which have been rejected. It wasn't until June 2023 that BlackRock, the world's largest asset management company, submitted an application, reigniting market expectations.
BlackRock manages assets over $9 trillion, and of its 576 ETF applications, only 1 has been rejected. Its application documents propose a certain cryptocurrency exchange as the custodian and data provider, with Bank of New York Mellon as the cash custodian, indicating thorough preparation.
As a result, multiple institutions have joined the application queue. As of August 2023, eight well-known institutions have applied for a Bitcoin Spot ETF. This wave of intensive applications may break the long-standing situation of no approvals for Bitcoin Spot ETFs in the United States.
Potential Impact of Bitcoin Spot ETF
Many applying institutions have chosen this platform as a partner to provide regulatory sharing services. Once the ETF is approved, a large amount of assets will be custodied on this platform, making it the biggest winner.
The approval of the ETF will provide a safe and effective channel for traditional financial funds to enter the cryptocurrency market. Considering the large asset scale of the applying institutions, this could inject massive funds into the market, driving the bull run.
The Bitcoin Spot ETF provides institutional investors with a convenient and standardized way to participate in the market, increasing the awareness and popularity of cryptocurrencies. The supervision-sharing protocol will enhance market transparency, improve credibility and investor confidence, and promote the development of more mature regulatory policies.
Summary
Although there is still uncertainty regarding the SEC's final decision, logically, since high-risk Bitcoin futures ETFs have been allowed to list, there is no reason to deny spot ETFs. The new applications have addressed the regulatory transparency issues previously raised by the SEC. The SEC's delay in approval may be waiting for traditional financial institutions to improve their infrastructure. Therefore, it seems like a matter of time before Bitcoin spot ETFs are approved in the United States.