Outlook and Structure of the Post-Bull Run Era in the Crypto Market

Global Crypto Market Landscape Analysis

In the first half of 2025, the crypto market enters the "post-bull run" phase, characterized by high-level fluctuations and structural differentiation. Although Bitcoin reached a new high, it was followed by a correction, and the market faced macro uncertainties again. This period is neither a traditional bear market nor a continuation of the bull run, but rather a transitional zone after the cycle peak. Risk appetite has decreased, and fund activity has weakened, but no systemic liquidity crisis has occurred. Core assets still have institutional demand, and on-chain activity has slightly declined. Some new narrative sectors, such as AI chains and Restaking, continue to attract funds, presenting a situation of "strong themes in a weak market."

The global economy is showing a state of "unstable disinflation and growth pressure." The Federal Reserve maintains a cautious stance, and there are differences in the market regarding interest rate cuts. Sino-U.S. trade friction has become a new variable, increasing market volatility. However, the globalization level and resistance to interference in the encryption industry have clearly strengthened. Multiple jurisdictions have introduced supportive policies, providing a clearer compliance path for traditional funds to participate, partially offsetting the negative impact of tightening U.S. regulations.

Overall, the "post-bull run" is not the end of the bull market, but rather a transition into a new phase—where the market places greater emphasis on value judgment, users focus more on practical scenarios, and capital tends to lean towards long-termism. In the short term, macro variables will still dominate expectation fluctuations, but in the medium to long term, the market is transitioning towards the next cycle of technology-application resonance. Finding sectors and targets with certain growth is the core logic of the "post-bull run era."

Analysis of Trade Dispute Impacts

In the first half of 2025, Sino-U.S. trade frictions became a market disturbance factor, involving multiple sensitive areas. However, compared to previous rounds, this round of disputes is more "symbolic", with actual impacts relatively mild, showing a gradually "fading" characteristic. The U.S. tariff increases are constrained by inflation pressures and voter interests, while China maintains a rational and restrained attitude, overall in a state of "limited confrontation".

Although trade frictions have led to a rise in short-term risk aversion, they have not resulted in a systemic risk reassessment of the global financial markets. Major indices quickly stabilized after the shock, and the crypto market's resilience has significantly improved compared to the past. The indirect impact on the crypto market is mainly reflected in: 1) a short-term contraction in risk appetite; 2) a deformation of cross-border capital flows; 3) a strengthening of the medium to long-term de-dollarization trend.

It is worth noting that as global inflation recedes, expectations for interest rate cuts rise, and trade negotiations return to rationality, the sensitivity of the crypto market to geopolitical friction is decreasing. Institutional investors have gradually begun to view trade risks as "background fluctuations" rather than decisive variables. The global macro environment is transitioning from "tightening finale" to "moderate recovery," and the risk pricing logic in the crypto market is also shifting from "geopolitical tension" to "interest rate inflection point."

Drivers of Market Rebound in the Second Half of the Year

In the second half of 2025, the crypto market is expected to welcome a rebound, with main driving factors including:

1. Changes in interest rate cycles and a rebound in risk appetite. Major global central banks are gradually adjusting monetary policies, and market expectations are opening a rate-cutting cycle, which is conducive to the flow of funds towards high-risk, high-return assets, driving up the prices of crypto assets.

2. Decentralized finance ( DeFi ) continues to innovate and expand. Technological advancements have significantly improved DeFi in terms of scalability, cost-effectiveness, and security, attracting more institutional participation. Innovations in lending, derivatives, and other areas of DeFi will drive a structural rebound in the market.

3. Institutional investors continue to enter the market. From ETFs to futures, and then to the increase of institutional fund holdings, institutional inflow brings more capital and risk management mechanisms to the market. Large enterprises are also gradually recognizing the strategic significance of encryption assets, aiding the mainstreaming process of the market.

4. Breakthroughs and Maturity of Blockchain Technology Applications. Blockchain has made progress in multiple fields such as finance, supply chain, and healthcare, especially in applications like cross-border payments, smart contracts, and DAOs, which will further promote market demand for crypto assets.

Main Chain and Asset Diversification Trends

1. The "hedging properties" of Bitcoin and Ethereum are redefined. Bitcoin further solidifies its status as "digital gold," while Ethereum becomes synonymous with "digital financial platform." Bitcoin will have more characteristics of a global reserve asset, and Ethereum may carry more Web3 infrastructure and financial innovations.

2. The Meme experiments of "high-performance chains" like Solana. After experiencing a period of explosive growth, chains like Solana have entered a new stage of deep ecological construction, facing the challenge of ecological sedimentation after the "peak of speculation."

3. Layer2 and cross-chain technology promote multi-chain collaboration. Layer2 solutions significantly enhance transaction efficiency, and the synergy of multi-chain coexistence + cross-chain liquidity protocols is strengthened. Users will pay more attention to application experience rather than the underlying chains, creating development space for cross-chain assets and unified wallets.

Strategy Suggestions

1. Stick to long-term investments in mainstream assets. Bitcoin and Ethereum are still the "main forces" in the market, and holding them for the long term is a prudent strategy.

2. Focus on innovative chains and emerging assets. Consider investing in public chains and assets with technological innovation and high growth potential, such as Solana, Avalanche, etc.

3. Strengthen the allocation of stablecoins and DeFi assets. The application scenarios of stablecoins are expanding, and DeFi assets may become a new growth point.

4. Closely monitor policy dynamics and regulatory risks. Adjust strategies in a timely manner to avoid policy risks and seize potential opportunities.

Overall, the crypto market has significant rebound potential in the second half of 2025, but it is necessary to comprehensively consider multiple factors such as macroeconomics, technological advancements, and liquidity of funds. Investors should remain flexible and continuously pay attention to market changes and opportunities.