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#美国经济政策影响# The rapid rise in expectations for a Fed rate cut in September is indeed concerning. The weak US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data has undoubtedly intensified market worries about an economic slowdown, while also boosting rate cut expectations. Currently, the CME FedWatch tool indicates that the probability of a rate cut in September has reached 92.1%, a significant rise from a week ago. This change in expectations could have a significant impact on asset prices.
From on-chain data, it appears that large fund flows have been quite active recently, which may reflect that some institutional investors are adjusting their allocations based on macro expectations. However, it is also important to note that market sentiment still shows divergence, and it may maintain a volatile consolidation pattern in the short term.
It is advisable to closely follow the upcoming economic data and speeches from Fed officials to grasp the direction of policies. At the same time, one should also be wary of the volatility risks brought by excessive market reactions. In terms of investment strategy, consider gradually building a diversified portfolio to cope with different scenarios.