In the US employment dataset released on Friday, non-farm employment came in at 209 thousand, below the expectation of 230 thousand, while average hourly earnings came in at 4%, despite an addition of 3%. Normally, these two data should neutralize each other, but after the ADP employment data released on Thursday, the decline in non-farm employment was perceived as slightly positive by the markets.

The US inflation data will come on Wednesday, if it comes below the expectations, it may blow a positive atmosphere until the Fed meeting. Expectation; headline 3.1%, core 5%. While low energy prices are an advantage for the headline, I think the market will focus on the core. As the last important data of this week, we will follow the PPI on Thursday.
Returning to the country, the budget deficit was 206 billion TL in June. The 6-month deficit increased to 453 billion TL. Mehmet Şimşek states that it is important to balance the budget. For this reason, the burden brought by the earthquake and the cost of the election to the budget is tried to be financed by the tax increase. Although this is consistent with the policy targeted by the new economy management; The demand for the President's authorization to transfer the cost of KKM from the Treasury to the Central Bank and to increase the 2023 borrowing limit by 3 times creates a contradiction. An electoral economy to be implemented will fuel upward movements in inflation and exchange rates.
BIST passed last week with an upward trend as I expected. Although the new economy management wants to meet the expectations of the markets, the steps taken by the government continue to feed inflation. I think that the inflation-based rise will continue in the stock market in the medium term.
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