Apple Vision Pro investment enlightenment theory, seeing another "gold rush" outlet

Source: VR Gyro

Author: Ran Qixing

Image source: Generated by Unbounded AI tool

"According to friends from Apple, some people in the Apple Park usually wear Vision Pro, whether they are going to work, eating, or even walking on the road."

“Wearing a headset can do a lot of things, such as swiping a card to buy meals, work, etc., just like wearing AirPods, trying to integrate it with mobile phones, computers, and life.” An investor said to the VR gyro.

Apple Vision Pro's subversive product definition, innovative functional experience, and unique technical path once again amazed the entire technology circle. There is still more than half a year before the official release of Apple Vision Pro, and Apple is also speeding up internal time to polish and optimize.

At the same time, the entire upstream and downstream of the XR industry is also undergoing a new round of product and technology thinking due to the release of Apple Vision Pro. Many traditional consumer electronics companies are also eager to move and look at XR.

As the backbone of promoting industrial development, the investment circle also saw the direction of focus at the Apple Vision Pro conference. Just like the case cited in the previous article "Apple MR, Will Trigger the Third XR Investment Boom": After the number of smartphones in the United States increased to 100 million in 2011, the popularity and growth rate of several application startups Explosive growth has occurred - it is undeniable that with the mature shipment stage of hardware, applications will be a huge investment opportunity point.

After the release of Apple Vision Pro, we can now clarify and extend our previous point of view again: Apple MR will trigger the third XR investment craze, and this time the hot target belongs to "applications".

**1. Why does the wind brought by Apple blow to "applications"? **

The release of Apple Vision Pro, to some extent, represents the relative maturity and certainty of the hardware terminal. Although there are still many shortcomings in the current product form, the general direction of 3D + spatial computing and even a new interactive form can basically be determined. Just as Apple defines the interaction method of smartphones as touch screen, the interaction of this generation of space computing terminals is also fixed as eye movement + gesture + voice.

With Apple's strong technology and supply chain capabilities, it is believed that it is only a matter of time before the problems left by the lightweight of the terminal, and Apple's Vision Pro thrown to the market is a blank in the application ecology - for entrepreneurs, this brand new interactive platform Business opportunity.

Seeing the future trend from product changes, Blue Run Ventures DK said: Apple Vision Pro has brought changes in four aspects, namely the display level, human-computer interaction level, environmental perception and spatial computing developer platform:

• In terms of display, Vision Pro has iteratively improved display capabilities compared to existing products on the market, including features such as 4K high-definition binoculars, anti-vertigo technology, VST technology, and foveated rendering.
• In terms of human-computer interaction, Vision Pro supports various interactive methods such as bare-hand operation, eye movement, expression and body movements, providing a more intuitive interactive experience.
• In terms of environmental perception, Vision Pro is equipped with 10+ cameras and infrared sensors. Through the collection of depth information and the development of software and hardware technology, it has realized a rich perception of the environment.
• At the spatial computing developer platform level, Vision Pro will provide the infrastructure for new applications on glasses, including stand-alone human-computer interaction, multi-person real-time interaction in a small space in a room, and multi-person virtual-real interaction in a large space in a full scene in the future.

"These changes in display, human-computer interaction, environmental perception, and spatial computing developer platforms have opened up new human-computer interaction interfaces. In the future, there will be many new applications based on virtual-real fusion. This is a trend."

In the view of Blue Rush Ventures DK, Apple Vision Pro brings four levels of changes and highlights, and based on these changes, it will eventually open the door to the growth curve of MR application ecology.

In fact, VR Gyro believes that Apple Vision Pro solves a problem of whether the chicken lays the egg or the egg lays the chicken. An old-fashioned question in the XR industry is why the XR industry has not exploded?

Based on this, we often see two views. One view is that the various underlying hardware technologies of XR are immature, while the other view is that there are no killer application scenarios and content. The two viewpoints competed with each other and fought hard according to reason, and finally formed the philosophical problem of "the chicken lays the egg, the egg lays the chicken".

And Apple Vision Pro has now come forward to solve the problem of the underlying hardware technology, that is, the "chicken" problem. Regarding the problem of eggs, Apple has already done a lot of demos and opened the SDK, and then more developers are needed. Join to form a rich and diverse application ecology.

Joy Capital MD Kai believes that Apple Vision Pro has not brought him too many unexpected special surprises in terms of hardware or application scenarios. He believes that Apple's most powerful ability lies in its influence on developers, and Apple Vision Pro's current product path is similar to the previous successful methodology.

Kai said: "If you look at history, Apple doesn't seem to have done something that completely redefines new categories, but has done better in existing categories, such as touch-screen phones, Bluetooth headsets, smart watches, etc. So this time Apple Maybe the SDK and simulators will still be provided to developers, allowing developers to create new scenarios.”

"One of Apple's most powerful capabilities lies in its developer community. Apple provides SDKs and simulators to developers to let them know what they can do, and then gradually expand functions. From this perspective, Apple may continue its The successful way is advancing without being positively or negatively influenced by external markets."

The content direction opportunity brought by Apple Vision Pro may be closely related to the time node in addition to the product itself.

Some investors also said that from the perspective of VR hardware investment, the opportunity point may be about two years ago, that is, before PICO was acquired, there is still a certain window of opportunity. But after that, that window of opportunity is less obvious. Until now, the window of opportunity for hardware may be smaller, so more focus will be on the content side.

Whether it's from Apple's previous product line, successful experience, or the new platform opened by Vision Pro, the focus is on XR applications.

Second, XR application layer, popular investment target with consistent tendency

Some people compare Apple to a lighthouse, and the release of Vision Pro has also made the investment industry see a clearer direction.

"I think the content direction is the main guide, but this may not be able to see the effect in the short term, because it requires a new platform to stimulate the creativity of developers and let them make some new applications on it."

"The content we focus on is actually divided into several levels. One is the upper-level content developer studio, and the other is whether there are some general-purpose technologies. This is what we pay attention to. For example, technologies such as AI can give Content developers and productivity tools provide universal capability support."

"We believe that with developers, we can find some new opportunities in investment, or some exciting innovations. And we will be more optimistic about future application scenarios, whether it is digital entertainment or productivity tools, We all pay attention to the developers in this industry and what they do, and we feel that the industry is more mature than before."

Jia Rui, a leading institutional investor, talked about his views on XR investment guidance after the release of Apple Vision Pro.

When talking about XR applications, Kai also expressed his strong interest in XR projects in the Apple ecosystem. He said, "I am very much looking forward to some entrepreneurs saying that they will do innovative applications in Apple's MR ecosystem."

"It will definitely not be achieved overnight, but whether it is an APP developer in the Apple ecosystem or a developer of other industries or platforms, if there is a good idea that could not be realized on mobile phones before, but can be realized with the help of spatial computing capabilities, it will be very easy. interesting."

Of course, only half a month has passed since the release of Apple Vision Pro (based on the actual interview timeline), Kai believes that thinking and innovation need some time to settle.

He said: "The market, including entrepreneurs and developers, may take some time to digest the new capabilities brought by Apple. Developers need to get SDK and simulators in order to have more practical feedback. Maybe we also need to give Some time in the market."

Zhao Wanrong, VP of Source Code Capital, expressed the same opinion on the direction of XR industry investment, and in his opinion, he is more inclined to application products than game content.

"It must be an application for investment, but it needs to find some unique definitions and interactive projects. The most distinctive feature of Apple Vision Pro is the combination of bare-hand interaction and VST technology. Based on these product features, there may be some on the application side. A new way to play."

"From the perspective of application types, games actually have their limitations. The upper limit of game experience may be "Beat Saber" and "Half-Life: Alyx". Let's see which form of MR or VR can provide a better experience. ? And for other application-type things, you actually have more space.”

"For us, we definitely pay more attention to non-gaming things. It is non-gaming things that can determine whether the device can meet its sales expectations. We have been investing in applications, as long as there are suitable ones, we are very happy to vote." Zhao Wanrong, VP of Source Code Capital, said to VR Spinning Top.

Regarding the direction of investment in the XR industry, based on the above four changes seen from Vision Pro, BlueRun Ventures DK has three industry judgments. When describing the investment bid for the application, he also emphasized that XR software application is not the only opportunity, and hardware also has opportunities.

First, the next 18 months is the golden time window for development at the application level. Now Apple's headset has been released, but the public has not seen it, nor bought it. So during this period of time, excellent developers can get headsets and make some innovative applications without worrying about fierce competition. Even if the headset starts to go on sale in the future, due to the price issue, the early sales will not be too large. Therefore, the entire track is still in a relatively blue ocean state, and there is an opportunity to make applications with new-generation MR characteristics and spatial computing capabilities within these 18 months.

Second, the mode of human-computer interaction will change greatly. I suggest that the entrepreneurial team think about the needs and habits of users from the bottom, and not be limited by the framework of the mobile Internet. It is necessary to minimize the reliance on traditional interaction methods such as touch screens, and make full use of new interaction methods brought about by spatial computing, such as bare hands, eye movements, and bodies. It is necessary to return to the first principles and design a more natural, intuitive and immersive interactive experience from the user's point of view.

Third, both hardware and software have opportunities. In terms of hardware, we will focus on core components throughout the supply chain, such as display, computing, mechanical adjustment, batteries, etc. Because after Apple opens this new track, there will be more mid-to-low-end headsets to follow up in the future, so there are still many opportunities here.

Applications are not limited to "APP". In terms of software, Blue Run Capital DK said that they will divide the concept of applications into two categories: one is the infrastructure level, such as operating systems, engines, and spatial computing platforms; the other is the It is the application level, such as productivity tools, social networking, entertainment, etc.

He said: "At the application level, we will look at it from three dimensions: first, which types of applications can adapt to the new interaction methods brought by the Apple headset, such as non-traditional VR game applications; second, which applications can be combined AI and spatial computing capabilities, such as Wenshengwen, Tushengtu, etc.; the third is which applications can have cross-terminal capabilities, which can run on Apple headsets, mobile phones and PCs. This can take advantage of existing user base while being able to capture new opportunities presented by headsets.”

Third, although everything is developing for the better, look at the Apple effect rationally

"Vision Pro is the iPhone moment for the XR industry."

"Vision Pro is a turning point for the XR industry, and the market is about to explode."

Before and after the release of Apple's Vision Pro, we saw too much enthusiastic speech. However, after a month, we will find that the entire industry has not undergone too many obvious changes like the first wave of VR boom in 2015 or the huge dividend brought by the metaverse in 2021 because of the release of Vision Pro.

In the short term, this is a period of gaining momentum. Whether it is products, technologies or scenarios, it will take time to recast.

Jia Rui, a leading institutional investor, said: "People's expectations for Vision Pro may have been too high before. First of all, this product is indeed a product that has a major impact on the industry, but it will not be a hot product in the short term, because it Its positioning and ecological content are not yet perfect. So it will not cause a sensation in the consumer market like ChatGPT, so that everyone will soon feel its charm. And this product does not have many attributes of media communication, so from From the perspective of attracting the attention of the mass market, it must be lower than expected.”

Zhao Wanrong, VP of Source Code Capital, also said frankly: "I think everyone should not have illusions, thinking that Apple Vision Pro can change the world. In fact, it still has many problems, and it just points out the future direction for everyone. So now it is actually some The era of brave gold diggers is to rush into this industry, make some fresh attempts, and make the technology well. However, it must not be the time when the iPhone 4 is booming, and that is the era of real applications. It’s just an exploratory stage right now.”

It is true that the impact of Apple Vision Pro on the industry is indeed positive. Everyone may take it for granted that the investment in the entire XR industry this year will reach a new level of innovation, reaching a level comparable to that of 2016.

Blue Rush Ventures DK believes that this year's investment quota will increase steadily, which mainly depends on several factors:

The first factor is the situation in the capital market. Now the VC and PE of US dollars and RMB are affected by geopolitics, etc., and investment institutions will be more cautious;

The second factor is the impact of Apple's headsets. Although the Apple headset has opened up a new way of interaction, there is still a period of time before mass production and popularization, so the commercial certainty is not high enough, which will affect the rhythm of investment;

The third factor is the user experience situation. At present, mass users have not really experienced Apple headsets, so the doubts and risks of VR headsets have not been completely eliminated, and it will take time to verify.

Combining these three factors, I think this year's investment attention will be very high, and the activity will also increase. The specific number and amount of transactions still depend on the innovation of the project itself.

The release of Apple's Vision Pro has caused an upsurge in the industry, but there is still no motivation for change like ChatGPT for major manufacturers.

Blue Rush Ventures DK said: "The attention of major manufacturers will increase, but it has not yet reached the level that can directly drive decision-making. If you have to have a reference, it is relatively clear that there is no such effect as ChatGPT. , can lead to a substantial increase in everyone's resource investment and attention. At present, everyone will only feel that there is a great opportunity in this direction, and then start to think and analyze systematically."

"Apple Vision Pro has opened up a new way of human-computer interaction. This is very clear, so I feel that my confidence has been greatly improved. But when it comes to the actual level, I think everyone may want to wait for the product to be used by more people. Get up, and then more user feedback will be reflected. If many users are willing to wear and use it for several hours a day, then I think everyone may really implement the power of action.”

Joy Capital MD Kai also holds the same uncertain view on the investment and financing growth expectations of the XR industry this year, but he believes that the situation will definitely get better in the second half of the year or next year.

Some investors also said to the VR gyro: "We communicated with friends from some US dollar funds and RMB funds, and RMB funds are indeed more interested in fields such as virtual reality, augmented reality, metaverse or space computing."

"This year everyone is more interested in these fields than last year. Although the dollar is relatively weak, state-owned assets and the renminbi are relatively encouraging. Of course, this is also related to policy documents. In encouraging the development of artificial intelligence, augmented reality and other fields, in the second half of the year Or things could get better next year."

Fourth, domestic XR brand start-ups, it is difficult to catch up with Apple in a short time

Vision Pro is almost different from all XR products on the market. This is a brand new product definition and technical form. In the era of smart phones, we saw that after the iPhone 4, a large number of domestic touch-screen phones appeared on the market.

Will we see the same market phenomenon after Vision Pro?

"The release of Apple's headset has a great impact on the entire industry, causing many manufacturers to re-plan their product routes. But in the short term, it is unlikely that there will be a headset similar to Apple in the Chinese market."

"On the one hand, everyone had no expectations for Apple's product form before; on the other hand, Apple's products have a very deep technical reserve behind them, which cannot be easily copied by ordinary teams. So I think that in the next two years, if you want to see It is still difficult to find a head-mounted display product at the same level as Apple."

"In the long run, I believe that Apple's head-mounted display will become the mainstream product form in the market, no matter in terms of parameters, technology stack, or interaction methods." Said DK of BlueRun Ventures.

Apple Vision Pro has an absolutely luxurious hardware configuration, not only has M2+R1 dual-chip, but also has up to 12 cameras, 5 sensors of various types and 6 microphones, and supports reverse perspective. Regarding the gap between Apple Vision Pro and domestic manufacturers, Jia Rui, a top institutional investor, believes that the gap in "software" is even greater.

Jia Rui said: "There is a bigger gap in soft power, such as the detail accuracy of many algorithm technologies such as See-through, eye tracking, and hand recognition, as well as the software ecosystem. For example, when a user wears Vision Pro, if someone Talk to him, and Vision Pro will automatically turn on the AR mode to slowly present people in the real world. An experience like this actually involves a lot of technical details behind it.”

"On the contrary, it is easier to pile up a piece of hardware. When cost and other issues are not considered, it mainly depends on supply chain resources. It is not difficult to make a demo product similar to Vision Pro. But for software, I think at present, Android is certainly not able to catch up as soon as it competed with iOS back then. However, the experience Apple currently provides will take some time.”

According to the latest news from Mark Gurman, after Apple launched Vision Pro, it needs to improve the VisionOS system and product performance and applications. For this reason, Apple has recruited thousands of employees again.

Kai said: "Apple has invested seven or eight years and a lot of resources in Vision Pro, with a team of more than 2,000 people. Such a scale is not easy for a start-up company, and it does have supply chain integration capabilities far beyond the industry. However, we also believe that start-up companies play an important role in each generational change of technology, promoting innovation and industrial advancement. Chinese start-up companies have their own unique advantages compared with major Chinese and American companies. This is a roadmap Difficult but bright road."

OPENAI was established in 2015, and it will not affect the world until 2023 because of ChatGPT. Technology must go through a long period of precipitation to produce the best results, and the same is true for XR.

5. Conclusion

There is no doubt that after the release of Apple Vision Pro, it will have a certain boost to the XR market, but this effect is limited, and it will take a longer time to prove it with experience. The fortress of technology needs to be piled up step by step, and the consumer market also needs to be advanced step by step.

In the process of entering the consumer market, application scenarios and content ecology play an important role. It is the first element for consumers to truly feel the charm of MR, and it has media communication properties and viral communication effects.

Obviously, after Apple released Vision Pro and announced the SDK, XR applications have become a track of opportunity. As shown by the first batch of developers who entered the App Store after the release of the iPhone, whether it was the popular "Cut Fruit" or the naughty and cute "Talking Tom Cat", they all left behind in the Internet age. Make a glorious stroke and become an eternal classic.

"Cut Fruit" and "Talking Tom Cat" are excellent works derived from the new interactive mode based on the "touch screen" iPhone. Under Vision Pro, a new computing platform, the next batch of third-party hits will be subversive applications based on mixed reality and biological interaction (bare hands, eye movement).

In 2023, a new human-computer interaction mode is brewing, and the innovative XR application layer is also being favored by capital.