HTX DeepThink: Long positions increase driving up Bitcoin, US employment data may become a key watershed in the short term.

According to Deep潮 TechFlow news, on July 3, HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research researcher Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) analyzed that Bitcoin recently surged from $105,200 to $109,500, mainly benefiting from a significant increase in the activity of the derivation market: the open interest (OI) in major futures exchanges soared by 10%, totaling $3.2 billion, indicating that a large amount of new funds is flowing into the market. This rise is primarily driven by long positions, indicating that investors have an optimistic view of Bitcoin's future rise, and market momentum is recovering.

At the same time, the latest "small non-farm" ADP employment data unexpectedly fell by 33,000, igniting further market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The probability of a rate cut in July has risen to 27.4%. More importantly, the market generally believes that the Federal Reserve will take action in September, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut as high as 64%-72%, and even the possibility of a 50 basis point cut cannot be ruled out.

Despite a loosening macro atmosphere, Bitcoin's current trend remains volatile and consolidating. The Put/Call ratio in the options market has risen to 0.72, with 104,000 USD becoming a key support level, while 114,000 USD constitutes a strong short-term resistance. The on-chain capital flow remains stable, indicating that the main players are still waiting for this week's non-farm payroll and initial jobless claims data. Structurally, the market is playing out two paths: if employment continues to be weak, a rate cut in September is expected to trigger a new round of upward movement for Bitcoin; conversely, if non-farm payrolls are unexpectedly strong, the 104,000 USD line may be breached, triggering a technical pullback.

Overall, under the resonance of macro policy shift and technical signals, Bitcoin is in a sensitive window period full of directional choices and potential volatility amplification.