Can Ethereum reach a new historical high? - In-depth analysis of Uweb live class episode 178

On the evening of July 17, the 178th Uweb live sharing session was held as scheduled, focusing on the theme "Does Ethereum have a chance to create a historical new high soon?" Host Yu Jianing (Uweb Principal) engaged in an in-depth conversation with the invited guest Schrödinger's Cat (now renamed KT), comprehensively analyzing Ethereum's recent trends, macroeconomic impacts, industry trends, and investment strategies. This article extracts the core viewpoints of the two guests from a media perspective, providing investors with a clear market insight and opportunity outlook.

Ethereum is surging strongly, is a historical high in sight?

Recently, Ethereum quickly rose from a low of $2000 to $3400, accumulating a nearly 10% increase, just a step away from the previous high of $4100. During the live broadcast, Uncle Cat analyzed the three core logics behind Ethereum's rise: first, macro policy benefits, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts in September and the advancement of the U.S. cryptocurrency bill; second, a capital spillover effect, where funds flowed into high-risk assets like Ethereum after Bitcoin broke $122,000; third, improved market sentiment, as investors gradually accepted the current price range and recognized the future value of Ethereum.

However, can Ethereum break through $4100 and set a new historical high? Cat Uncle believes that in the short term, Ethereum may challenge $3600, but we should be wary of the resistance level at $3468. If the breakthrough fails, a pullback may occur, and $3000 will be a key support level. Yu Jianing added that Ethereum's total market value once approached $1 trillion, and the current price is below the "price-to-book ratio," indicating bottom-picking potential, but the short-term selling pressure risk cannot be ignored.

Macroeconomic environment: Opportunities and risks coexist

Is the recent surge in the crypto market supported by the macroeconomic environment? Uncle Cat points out that the current market liquidity is abundant, with the market capitalization of stablecoins increasing from $170 billion to $270 billion, indicating a significant inflow of funds. The expectation of interest rate cuts in September has boosted risk appetite, but caution is needed as economic data (such as inflation or retail data) may show stagflation risks, which could lead to interest rate cuts being interpreted as a "market rescue," triggering a market correction. In addition, while geopolitical risks (such as the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict) are controllable in the short term, long-term uncertainties remain.

Yu Jianing vividly likened the current market to the "eye of the typhoon," appearing calm but harboring risks. Trump's policies, while causing short-term disturbances, provide the market with relatively stable expectations through his strategy of "turning small victories into big ones." However, if unexpected fluctuations occur in the economy or policies, assets such as Ethereum may face a depth correction.

Is the era of copycat projects returning? The integration of traditional finance presents new opportunities.

Will the rise of Ethereum drive a "Altcoin Season"? Uncle Cat stated that the traditional logic of Altcoin Season has changed. Current funds are more inclined towards Bitcoin and Ethereum, with the rise of altcoins mainly due to short-term "week formula", and sustainability is questionable. Some DeFi tokens (such as CRV) are performing actively, but the overall altcoin market has not fully restored trust. Investors need to pay attention to the weekend fund flow to judge whether it is flowing into non-mainstream assets like Solana and CRV.

Yu Jianing pointed out that the real "Shanzhai season" may occur in the Web3 ecosystem of Hong Kong and US stocks. RWA (Real World Assets), stablecoins, and stocks related to corporate token purchases frequently see price increases of 5 to 10 times. Traditional financial institutions (such as HSBC) are accelerating their layouts, demonstrating a trend of deep integration between crypto and traditional finance. He suggests that investors switch from a "speculating on coins" mindset to a "speculating on stocks" mindset, seizing Web3 opportunities in Hong Kong and US stocks.

Ethereum's Long-term Value: Resilience and Potential Coexist

Regarding the long-term value of Ethereum, Uncle Cat believes that its ecological resilience is beyond doubt. After experiencing multiple bull and bear cycles, Ethereum, with applications in DeFi, NFT, and RWA, remains one of the most recognized public chains in the market. Although the current price has not returned to its historical high, compared to Bitcoin, it has partially detached from the characteristics of a risk asset. Ethereum still possesses high risk and high return features, making it suitable for long-term investors.

Yu Jianing added that Ethereum remains attractive to novice investors, with its market capitalization and ecological stability making it the preferred asset next to Bitcoin. Long-term holding (1 - 2 years) may yield considerable returns, but caution is advised regarding the ongoing decline of the ETH/BTC exchange rate, with a low likelihood of a short-term trend reversal.

Callback risk and investment strategy

If there is a pullback over the weekend, which levels are worth paying attention to? Uncle Cat suggests that for Bitcoin, the focus should be on the support levels of $113,000 and $100,000 - $97,000. If it drops to $97,000, it may be a "golden pit." For Ethereum, the $3,000 support level needs to be monitored. Short-term investors should take it step by step, while long-term investors can accumulate positions in batches during pullbacks. Yu Jianing emphasizes that investment decisions should have a clear holding period; short-term speculation requires caution, while long-term value investment offers better cost-effectiveness.

In addition, both guests reminded that the rumors of selling 80,000 bitcoins have attracted market attention, but current buying pressure is strong, and the short-term impact is limited. Investors should closely monitor policy developments (such as the U.S. crypto bill) and U.S. stock earnings reports to make a comprehensive judgment on market trends.

Future Outlook: Seize the dividends of the integration of Web3 and traditional finance

At the end of the live broadcast, Yu Jianing called on investors to actively participate in Uweb's Hong Kong RWA program (July 31 - August 4), systematically learning about RWA, stablecoins, and Hong Kong stock investment strategies to seize the dividends of the integration of Web3 and traditional finance. He specifically mentioned that the Hong Kong stablecoin and RWA ecosystem will become long-term opportunities, where systematic cognitive enhancement and role switching are more critical than short-term speculation. In addition, Uweb plans to organize a study tour in the United States in August, visiting key institutions such as Circle and MicroStrategy to provide investors with a broader perspective.

Conclusion

The 178th session of Uweb's live class painted a panoramic view of the Ethereum and Web3 market for investors: strong short-term upward momentum, but caution is needed for retracement risks; long-term value resilience is significant, and the Web3 ecosystem, which integrates traditional finance, holds immense potential. Whether it's bottom-fishing for Ethereum or positioning in Web3 targets in Hong Kong stocks and U.S. stocks, investors must abandon the mindset of seeking a sword by carving a boat and flexibly adjust strategies based on macro trends and technical analysis. The next wave of the bull market is about to arrive, and only by enhancing awareness and switching perspectives can one stand out in this "last dance."

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