Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Exit as On-Chain Metrics Signal Market Shift

Long-term holders have sold Bitcoin equal to half of all ETF holdings, signaling the final stages of the current distribution cycle.

Coin Days Destroyed and SOPR metrics highlight increasing sell pressure from experienced holders, with signs of bearish sentiment across the network.

The Alpha Savior indicator has yet to flash, suggesting Bitcoin’s macro top may not be in, with more room for upside movement ahead.

Bitcoin cycle indicators are flashing warnings as long-term holders (LTHs) offload their assets at increasing rates. Despite this activity, analysts believe the market may still have more room to run before reaching its peak.

Long-Term Holders Enter Mass Distribution Phase

Joao Wedson, a well-followed market analyst, recently shared that the Bitcoin cycle for long-term holders is nearing its conclusion. He explained that despite the growing popularity of Bitcoin ETFs, LTHs have offloaded a volume equal to 50% of all Bitcoin held by ETFs.

According to Wedson, this distribution should not be overlooked. It shows that while ETFs continue attracting interest, a large portion of Bitcoin still rests in the hands of seasoned holders. These entities, alongside major exchanges, continue to influence price trends more than newer institutional players.

The increase in distribution activity aligns with previous market tops. Historical behavior from LTHs suggests that their selling patterns can serve as early indicators of trend reversals or local peaks.

On-Chain Metrics Signal Caution for Bitcoin Investors

Several on-chain charts shared by Wedson offer further insight into current market dynamics. One of the metrics, Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) Terminal Adjusted, has shown three distinct spikes over the past two years. Each spike aligned with a local Bitcoin top.

This metric focuses on the movement of older coins, which typically signals that long-held assets are being moved—often to be sold. Another metric, Reserve Risk Indicators, now shows increased LTH activity through higher hand exchanges and selling pressure.

These changes in on-chain behavior indicate a shift in sentiment among long-standing investors. The move away from holding could precede volatility, even if the final top has not yet arrived.

SOPR Trend Points to Bearish Outlook

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) Trend Signal has also issued a bearish reading. This metric tracks whether BTC is being moved at a profit or a loss and has proven useful in anticipating short-term market movements.

According to the analysis, the bearish signal was triggered weeks before the recent dip in Bitcoin’s price. This behavior supports short positions and could suggest a cautious phase for traders. The data confirms a potential correction underway, driven in part by the ongoing LTH distribution.

While SOPR reflects past on-chain transactions, it provides timely insights when shifts begin to appear across the broader network.

Alpha Savior Metric Yet to Flash Final Warning

Despite several bearish signs, one final metric—dubbed “The Alpha Savior”—has not yet indicated a market top. Wedson noted that this tool has historically been one of the most accurate in predicting macro-level tops.

Source: DarkFost

According to him, the blue line within the chart must reach the $69,000 level before flashing a top signal. This suggests that the current market may still have upward potential, at least in the short term.

Wedson maintains that even with increased LTH activity, the final phase of the cycle may still be ahead. He estimates that Bitcoin could remain in its bullish pattern for two more months, with altcoins likely extending a month beyond that.

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