The ECB is likely to make a dovish adjustment at Thursday's meeting, highlighting the growth risks facing the eurozone. While a rate cut looks like an immediate decision, the new policy signal is limited due to uncertain timing of trade policy and fiscal stimulus. The ECB is likely to remain flexible in the absence of a clear change in Eurozone economic data. The ECB is expected to cut interest rates three times this year, bringing the deposit rate to 1.75%.

On March 7th, Jinshi data, Henry Cook, a European economist at Mitsubishi UFJ, said that after a huge change in German fiscal policy, the European Central Bank may be more cautious in pushing the Interest Rate into a looser range. The Interest Rate is now close to the highest estimate of neutrality, possibly around 2%. The development of the situation in Germany this week will certainly strengthen the hawks' resistance to the Interest Rate falling below this level.

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(1) Asian stock markets fluctuated on Monday as investors worried that U.S. inflation data released this week could undermine the prospects for interest rate cuts, while the risk of Japanese intervention in the currency market temporarily halted the yen's decline. (2) The main data of the week will be the US core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, which will be released on Friday. Core PCE is expected to rise 0.3% in February from the previous month and 2.8% from a year earlier. Any higher-than-expected performance would be seen as a blow to hopes of a June rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. (3) Friday is Easter and many markets are closed, so the full reaction to the PCE data released at that time will have to wait until next week. (4) Fed Chair Jerome Powell's performance last week was dovish enough that futures markets were pricing in a 74% chance of a rate cut in June, up from 55% a week ago. Powell will participate in a moderated discussion at a macroeconomic and monetary policy meeting on Friday. In addition, Fed Governors Lisa Cook and Christopher Waller will also speak this week. (5) Europe will face its own inflation test, with France, Italy, Belgium and Spain releasing consumer price data. The Eurozone headline CPI report is scheduled for April 3. (6) The Riksbank will meet on Wednesday and the Riksbank is widely expected to keep interest rates at 4.0%. However, the SNB unexpectedly cut interest rates last week, leading the market to expect a dovish statement from the Riksbank. (7) The expectation of lower global borrowing costs is positive for the stock market, which the S&P 500 has accumulated so far this year