Fed interest rate cut expectations rise, the crypto market may迎来新一轮热潮

Recently, data from the U.S. economy shows that the employment market is cooling and inflation is receding, creating favorable conditions for the Fed to embark on a new round of interest rate cuts. Recent remarks by the Fed chairman also suggest that the rate cut cycle is imminent. However, the market is simultaneously concerned about the potential risk of a recession in the U.S. economy, and this intertwining of interest rate cut expectations with recession worries has increased volatility in the global financial markets.

In July, the U.S. non-farm payroll data significantly fell short of expectations, raising concerns in the market about a recession. However, this has also led to stronger expectations for interest rate cuts, as investors anticipate a new expansion cycle of global liquidity. The CPI data's unexpected decline further reinforced this expectation.

It is worth noting that the potential interest rate cut this time is of a preventive nature, aimed at guarding against possible economic risks, rather than responding to an already evident economic crisis. Historical data shows that preventive interest rate cuts often do not lead to bear markets, but may instead promote the formation of bull markets.

Global stock markets experienced significant fluctuations in August. Nevertheless, the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a new high. During this critical period, investor sentiment is relatively fragile, and any minor fluctuation could trigger a strong reaction.

Although the latest financial reports released by tech giants exceeded expectations, the market's reaction has been tepid. This reflects that investors are beginning to consider macro factors more than the performance of individual companies. Currently, on the eve of a macro liquidity transformation, the divergence in monetary policy between the Fed and Japan's central bank has brought uncertainty to the investment environment.

The crypto market is also affected by global asset fluctuations. After experiencing a drop, the price of Bitcoin has gradually rebounded, currently hovering around $60,000. Despite the price volatility, the number of addresses holding a large amount of Bitcoin has recently increased, indicating that some investors are taking the opportunity to accumulate.

In contrast, Ethereum's performance has been relatively weak, with its ETF experiencing consecutive net outflows. Professionals analyze that there may be a good opportunity to build positions in Ethereum in the second half of this year, especially after the large-scale sell-off ends.

Overall, the crypto market is currently closely linked to the macroeconomic situation. The Fed's interest rate cuts may drive up the prices of fixed supply assets such as Bitcoin. For investors, it may be wise to remain patient and observe market changes, while also paying attention to the opportunities that oversold assets may bring.