On the eve of the Fed's interest rate decision, analysts predict Bitcoin will break through $106,000 or initiate a new round of pump.

Market Observation

The Fed will announce the June interest rate decision tomorrow at 2 AM, and the market is highly focused on the officials' expectations for the number of rate cuts this year as shown in the dot plot. Some analysts believe that although two rate cuts within the year remain the baseline expectation for most policymakers, a few officials may be inclined to cut rates only once, which would affect market sentiment. If the dot plot shows only one rate cut, or if the Fed Chair indicates after the meeting that there is no urgency to cut rates, the dollar may strengthen as a result. The market expects that the Fed may implement its first rate cut of 2025 in September.

Meanwhile, the conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated, and global market concerns over oil supply continue to rise. According to reports, U.S. officials have stated that the next 24 to 48 hours will be crucial in determining whether the Israel-Iran issue can be resolved through diplomatic means or if military action will be taken. The U.S. has increased its military assets in the Middle East, including aircraft carriers, destroyers, and other defensive deployments. However, some analysts point out that the market's calm response amid tensions in the Middle East may be due to the "TACO" factor, meaning that the market has developed an "immune" response to certain policies, and investors are not overly pricing in the worst possible outcomes.

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin has experienced a pullback due to geopolitical risks, dipping to around $103,000, currently reporting at $105,478. Analysts point out that the current price range has not yet confirmed a bottom but provides a good accumulation opportunity. They expect that if Bitcoin can break through $106,000, it will start a new round of strong upward momentum. Meanwhile, the short-term support level is near $103,000, and if the price retraces and stabilizes, it may rebound, with a lower support level around $100,000. Another analyst highlights two key resistance levels at $108,951 and $110,406, suggesting that if Bitcoin reclaims $109,000 with increased trading volume, a bullish outlook could be considered. Additionally, some analysts believe that if it can break through the psychological barriers of $109,507 and $111,991, Bitcoin is likely to challenge the Fibonacci extension target of $119,164. If geopolitical tensions escalate further, it could undermine the critical support area of $104,800--$105,400, leading BTC to fall back to $103,100 or even $100,385.

On the Ethereum front, the current price is hovering around $2,548, with several recent attempts to break through the $2,700 resistance unsuccessful. Some analysts point out that although on-chain data shows that large holders continue to accumulate, providing long-term bullish signals, the short-term technical situation remains complex, requiring a breakthrough at $2,600 to reignite upward momentum. Another analyst believes that Ethereum will target $2,800, which will subsequently lead to a rise in other cryptocurrencies.

In terms of market dynamics, the three major US stock indices generally closed lower, and cryptocurrency-related stocks performed poorly. Notably, the US Senate passed the GENIUS stablecoin regulatory bill this morning, which established a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, but the market reaction was relatively muted, with related concept stocks performing flat. Some stablecoin-related tokens also fell with the broader market, suggesting that the market may have already digested this positive news in advance. In addition, several social media accounts related to cryptocurrencies have been unfrozen. There have been multiple projects experiencing rapid rises on-chain, some of which have quickly grown in market capitalization shortly after their launch, but the market capitalization of certain projects has shown a significant decline.

Key Data (as of June 18, 12:00 HKT)

• Bitcoin: $105,461 (year-to-date +12.71%), daily spot trading volume $34.805 billion
• Ethereum: $2,535.82 (Year-to-date -24.03%), daily spot trading volume is $22.424 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 48 (Neutral)
• Average GAS: BTC: 1.5 sat/vB ETH: 0.38 Gwei
• Market Share: BTC 64%, ETH 9.3%
• 24-hour BTC long to short ratio: 1.1222
• Sector fluctuations: GameFi down 4.6%; NFT sector down 4.2%
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 68,397 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of 322 million USD, including BTC liquidations of 83.05 million USD, ETH liquidations of 102 million USD, and XRP liquidations of 7.93 million USD.
• BTC medium to long-term trend channel: upper channel line (107134.00 USD), lower channel line (105012.53 USD)
• ETH Medium to Long-term Trend Channel: Upper Channel Line (2591.97 USD), Lower Channel Line (2540.64 USD)

ETF Flows (As of June 17)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$216 million (net inflow for 7 consecutive days)
• Ethereum ETF: +$11,094,700

Today's Outlook

• XRP-related ETF will be listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange on June 18.
• A certain project will launch the second season of its token airdrop on June 18, with 25% of the airdrop available for immediate claim.
• The airdrop of trading platform Alpha will be carried out in two phases starting from June 19.
• The trading platform Alpha will launch Matchain (MAT) on June 19.
• Immutable: IMX staking will launch on June 19 on Immutable zkEVM
• Multiple projects will unlock a portion of their tokens in the near future.
• The Fed interest rate decision in the US until June 18 ( upper limit ) (June 19, 02:00): Previous value 4.50%, predicted value 4.50%
• The Fed chairman will hold a monetary policy press conference. (June 19, 02:30)

Top 500 market cap biggest rises today: StormX (STMX) rise 434.95%, Altlayer (ALT) rise 13.08%, Status (SNT) rise 11.99%, KUB Coin (KUB) rise 6.78%, Aleo (ALEO) rise 6.77%.

Trending News

• A certain asset management company plans to launch a Solana spot ETF that has been registered with the DTCC.
• Multiple large investors are buying HYPE tokens in bulk and opening leveraged long positions.
• Eyenovia invests 50 million USD to establish HYPE reserves, and the company will be renamed "Hyperion DeFi".
• The US GENIUS Act was approved in the Senate, marking a historic step in stablecoin legislation.
• Ink will launch its native token INK, with airdrops aimed at early participants in the liquidity protocol.
• Multiple cryptocurrency-related social media accounts have been unfrozen.
• Eigen Labs launched the EigenCloud platform and received $70 million in investment from a certain investment institution.
• The exclusive TGE phase 25 of a certain wallet will launch DAOBase(BEE)
• Canadian listed company Luxxfolio chooses Litecoin as its reserve asset
• Data: A user on a certain blockchain sold 1 SPK for nearly $20,000
• World Gold Council: 95% of central banks expect gold reserves to rise in the next 12 months
• Infini has suspended all card services, and the card opening fee will be refunded to the account within 10 working days.
• A certain bank: Gold will fall below 3000 dollars in the coming quarters.
• An investment institution reduced its holdings of Circle stock at a high level on Monday, cashing out $51.7 million.