Ahead of Powell's speech tonight, the probability of the Fed lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in September has dropped to 71.3%.

On August 22, according to CME's "Fed Watch" data, before Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting tonight, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September has decreased to 71.3%, while the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged is 28.7%. The probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate unchanged until October is 14.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis points cut is 50.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis points cut is 35.1%. The dates for the next two FOMC meetings are September 17 and October 29.